Pasaran saham dan pilihan raya

Oleh KAMARULZAIDI KAMIS
PASARAN saham tempatan mempamerkan prestasi yang menakjubkan sepanjang minggu lalu apabila penanda arasnya, Indeks Komposit Kuala Lumpur (IKKL) berjaya mencatat rekod tertinggi dalam sejarah selama empat hari berturut untuk melambung melepasi paras 1,500 mata.
Ramai peniaga dan pelabur tempatan khususnya pelabur runcit mengatakan bahawa aliran meningkat di pasaran saham ketika ini berkait rapat dengan pilihan raya umum yang bakal di adakan.
Namun begitu, tahukah anda bahawa pertalian antara kenaikan pasaran saham dan pilihan raya adalah agak longgar.
Jika diteliti pergerakan pasaran saham negara ketika pilihan raya pada masa lalu, ternyata trend pasaran adalah lebih menjurus kepada kedudukan semasa dan jangkaan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta syarikat-syarikat di bursa saham.
Ketika pilihan raya 1982, fundamental ekonomi secara amnya lemah seperti yang digambarkan oleh kedudukan pasaran saham ketika itu.
Kebanyakan syarikat terutamanya dari sektor perladangan dan perlombongan mengalami pertumbuhan perolehan yang malap.
Menjelang pilihan raya 1982, pergerakan pasaran tempatan tertekan dan dipengaruhi oleh kelemahan pada pasaran serantau seperti Hong Kong dan Singapura.
Prospek global juga diselubungi oleh krisis petroleum, ketegangan geopolitik global berikutan perebutan kepulauan Falkland dan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat (AS) yang lemah.
IKKL pada penutup minggu ke-13 sebelum pilihan raya itu adalah di paras 365.13 mata berbanding 318.51 mata pada minggu pilihan raya. Pasaran terus terjejas selepas pilihan raya 1982.
Pada pilihan raya 1986, kedudukan ekonomi Malaysia bertambah kukuh setelah pulih dari pertumbuhan perlahan berikutan kemelesetan ekonomi dunia.
Malaysia baru menjadi tumpuan pelabur asing apabila kedudukan ringgit yang lemah ketika itu berjaya menarik kemasukan dana asing terutamanya dari Jepun dan Taiwan ke dalam sektor pilihan seperti perusahaan elektrik dan elektronik.
Aktiviti pengkorporatan agensi dan jabatan kerajaan giat berlangsung serta peningkatan bursa-bursa utama dunia yang lain juga turut menyumbang kenaikan pasaran tempatan.
IKKL meningkat dari 169.83 mata pada minggu ke-13 sebelum pilihan raya kepada 209.54 pada penutup minggu pilihan raya.
Walaubagaimanapun, pasaran tempatan susut sedikit sebanyak 2.7 peratus pada minggu terakhir sebelum pilihan raya, sebelum merekodkan peningkatan berterusan selepas pilihan raya.
Pada penutup minggu ke-13 atau tiga bulan selepas pilihan raya, IKKL telah mencatatkan peningkatan sejumlah 22.2 peratus.
Ketika pilihan raya 1990, keadaan pasaran agak bercampur-campur di sebalik pertumbuhan ekonomi yang memberangsangkan dan prestasi perolehan syarikat-syarikat tersenarai juga cemerlang.
Namun begitu, pasaran saham dipengaruhi masalah global seperti penaklukan Kuwait oleh Iraq yang membawa kepada tercetusnya Perang Teluk, di samping krisis politik di Soviet Union.
Senario
IKKL berada di paras 507.24 mata sebulan sebelum pilihan raya dan susut kepada 476.79 mata pada penutup minggu pilihan raya.
Pada pilihan raya 1995, senario ekonomi Malaysia tahun tersebut amat baik dengan pertumbuhan pada kadar 9.8 peratus.
Selain itu, tiada isu-isu domestik yang membimbangkan, lantas memastikan peratusan kemenangan lebih besar Barisan Nasional.
Aktiviti pembinaan projek-projek mega yang giat berlangsung dan kemasukan dana-dana asing dalam memastikan pasaran saham berada pada paras tertinggi.
Pasaran merekodkan peningkatan lebih 100 mata, dalam masa tiga bulan sebelum pilihan raya kembali lemah pada minggu terakhir pilihan raya.
Ketika pilihan raya 1999, Malaysia baru pulih dari Krisis Kewangan Asia 1997, dan kedudukan BN khususnya UMNO agak tertekan dengan isu perpecahan.
IKKL susut dari 764.79 mata tiga bulan sebelum pilihan raya kepada 745.91 pada penutup minggu pilihan raya.
Peningkatan IKKL selepas pilihan raya 1999 juga sememangnya turut dibantu oleh pemulihan ekonomi selepas kemelesetan pada 1998.
Namun begitu, pada pilihan raya 2004, IKKL berjaya melonjak melepasi paras 900 mata, tertinggi dalam tempoh empat tahun di catat pada minggu terakhir sebelum pilihan raya.
Walaupun ekonomi global terganggu seketika berikutan serangan wabak selesema burung, pelabur terus yakin dengan keupayaan kepimpinan Perdana Menteri baru, justeru merangsang keyakinan pelabur tempatan dan asing.
‘Fenomena tersebut menyaksikan peningkatan besar-besaran IK hampir 167 mata atau 22.6 peratus sejak 1 Oktober 2003 hingga penutup minggu .
Kesimpulannya, pilihan raya semata-mata tidak mampu menjanakan aliran meningkat di pasaran saham, namun ia perlu disokong oleh banyak faktor luaran dan dalaman lain.
Antaranya termasuk keadaan ekonomi semasa Malaysia; kedudukan ekonomi dunia; prestasi bursa-bursa utama dunia; faktor di luar kawalan lain seperti situasi geopolitik dunia dan sebagainya.
Dalam perspektif semasa, ekonomi Malaysia berkedudukan kukuh dengan jangkaan pertumbuhan sebanyak 6.5 peratus dan 6.0 peratus pada tahun ini dan tahun 2009.
Di samping itu, pelbagai aktiviti pembangunan telah dirancang menerusi Rancangan Malaysia Kesembilan dan wilayah pembangunan ekonomi bakal menampan daripada menerima kesan ketidaktentuan ekonomi global.
Pasaran tempatan agak istimewa kali ini kerana memiliki syarikat gergasi perladangan iaitu Sime Darby Bhd. dan IOI Corporation Bhd.
Peningkatan harga minyak sawit ekoran peningkatan permintaan sebagai bahan makanan dan komponen bahan bakar bio bagi menggantikan minyak mentah memberi manfaat kepada pasaran tempatan.
Selain itu, aktiviti transformasi syarikat-syarikat milik kerajaan (GLC) yang bermula pada tahun 2004 juga telah membuahkan hasil dengan kedudukan kukuh syarikat-syarikat tersebut dari segi kewangan dan strategi perniagaan pada ketika ini.
Oleh demikian, persepsi bahawa kenaikan pasaran saham semasa hanya disebabkan pilihan raya adalah kurang tepat kerana banyak elemen besar lain termasuk kekukuhan ekonomi dan syarikat tempatan yang menyokong peningkatan tersebut.

Sedutan dari Utusan Online 16/1/08

What Say You....

PM: confidence perks up bourse

Posted by Raja Petra
Tuesday, 15 January 2008
“The rise shows there is confidence in our bourse and our economy, which is at present booming. We continue to attract investments from overseas …” - Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Prime Minister of Malaysia
This was reported by the STAR newspaper on Sunday, 13th January 2008. This is as I had anticipated in my article dated the 6th January 2008 and reiterated again on Saturday, the 12th January 2008.
This is a silly statement, unbefitting of a prime minister. By this statement, is the Prime Minister of Malaysia making an admission that prior to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange surpassing the all time high of 1,500 mark of the Composite Index, there were no confidence by investors, foreign and local in our local bourse and the economy?
Is this a further admission that if the composite index is to plunge, it is a reflection that the investors have lost all confidence in our local bourse and the economy? I for one shall hold the Prime Minister to his word.

The frenzy by the government linked companies (GLCs), investment bankers, stock brokers and UMNO politicians to jack up the stock market reveals all to clearly their desperation to hoodwink the people that the Malaysian economy will be able to weather the financial storm that is now sweeping across the world, in the hope that the Barisan Nasional will be returned to power with a big mandate.
I cannot say precisely how much they have spent till to date in shoring the stock market, but I can say with confidence that it has created a huge dent in the political war chest and has affected the amount of monies available for the coming General Elections. Is it any wonder that UMNO “bag men” are asking for upwards of RM50 million for projects that will be awarded under the 9th Malaysian Plan and the mega projects to be awarded under the various “development corridors”.
If foreign investors have indeed “invested” (I prefer to use the word, “gamble”) heavily in the stock market, I am sure that they have made huge profits and when the time is right, sell off to our unsuspecting “retail punters” who will soon be left holdings shares worth at the most 20 sens to the ringgit, when the market takes a prolong dive.
Today’s performance by the KLSE is merely the tip of the iceberg. I have stated repeatedly in the last one year that the stock market will gyrate violently, the overall trend heading rapidly downwards!
On Saturday, 12th January 2008 at precisely 8.55 pm I wrote:
“With the Friday news like the one above, it will be totally stupid of anyone to think that come Monday, the KLCI will shoot for the moon.”
“We are living in perilous times. The government is using various resources to pump the stock market to give an illusion that all is well heading to the General Elections. I cannot stop anyone from listening to fairy tales.”
“This Red Alert was written at 8.55pm, Saturday the 12th January 2008. Therefore it is not written on hindsight. I am telling you in advance what is going to happen on Monday to Tuesday, the 14th to 15th January 2008.”
“I am no soothsayer and I am not gazing at the crystal ball.”
“Given the above information and research to date I am making a logical and rational deduction. I don’t let emotions rule my head.”
Those of you who followed the Badawi Pipe Piper, I hope you have survived this bloody Monday and have some money left to survive the coming months.
What a painful lesson.
What is important is not the bloody index. It is the price you went in for the counter. Now if the counter dropped today, you got whacked! Period! You suffered a loss.
Some asshole may say that the index dropped marginally. The key issue is whether you suffered any losses.
And if you are a punter betting on some derivatives based on the KLCI, you would also have lost money.
The KLCI was down. The UMNO chaps and GLCs went all out to push the market but losers were more than gainers. God only knows how much monies were dumped to shore the market. Were these guys desperate! But one cannot go against the market trend. Plunge Protection Team can only push up the market so much before the monies run out.
Just got this news from Bernama. Read the words underlined and in bold.
“Share Prices Close Lower On Profit Taking”
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 14 (Bernama) -- Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended lower Monday on selling of blue chips as investors took profit from last week's consecutive gains and its historic all time high closing of 1,516.22, dealers said.
At 5pm, the KLCI fell 9.18 points to 1,507.04 after opening 1.91 points lower at 1,514.31. It briefly touched a new high of 1,524.69, up 8.47 points, at 9.47am and posted an intra-day low of 1,502.10, down 14.12 points, at 4.56pm.
According to OSK Research, the KLCI is expected to trade within the range of 1,485-1,550 for the week but with mild technical correction as it has approached the 1,515-1,525 resistance area, and was also affected by the poor performance of Wall Street.
"Good support is seen at 1,500-1,485," it said in a note.
Meanwhile, a local dealer said although the market is expected to consolidate during the week after recent gains, the benchmark index should still remain in the upward trend and above the 1,500 level in the near term.
The Industrial Index declined 41.99 points to 3,135.81 while the Finance Index gained 21 points to 11,510.3.
Of the FTSE-BM Index series, the FBMEmas fell 80.20 points to 10,234.38 and the FBM30, which comprises the top 30 companies by full market capitalisation, dropped 69.68 points to 9,808.80.
The FBM2BRD lost 73.77 points to 6,852.56 and the FBM-MDQ decreased 83.75 points to 6,119.31
Losers led gainers 630 to 222 while 233 counters were unchanged, 328 were untraded and 24 suspended.
Overall volume slipped to 1.048 billion shares worth RM2.532 billion compared with last Friday's closing of 1.757 billion shares worth RM4.355 billion. …”
Wow! Losers led gainers by 630 to 222. 328 were un-traded!
Friday closing was 1.757 billion shares worth RM4.355 billion.,
Today, Monday only 1.048 billion shares were traded worth RM2.532
Therefore volume decreased by 700 million shares and value declined almost 50%! There was no profit taking. Punters just got scared and ran for cover following Dow’s Friday’s dismal performance.
This week will be another yo-yo week. Best of luck to pundits who are gluttons for punishment.
By the way, for those who are still of the view that the world economy is and or will not be affected by the crisis in the US, maybe the article published in Reuters will inspire you to have second thoughts. I quote:
World economy threatened by U.S. slowdown
By Emily Kaiser - Analysis
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global investors are losing hope that Europe's economy can sidestep a possible U.S. recession, and even fast-growing Asia may not be immune.
The argument that the world economy could "decouple" from the United States took hold in recent years as U.S. growth cooled while the global economy expanded at an impressive 5 percent clip. That encouraged investors to pour money into international equities in hopes of fatter returns.
But as markets brace for a full-blown U.S. recession, faith in that decoupling theory is fading fast.
"The market has now begun to show signs that it is much more concerned about the domestic spending picture in Europe," Goldman Sachs analyst Dominic Wilson said. "Our view that the U.S. will now fall into recession this year increases the risks to growth in the rest of the world."
ASIA LOSES ITS SHINE
The freight index had risen nearly 150 percent last year as investors bet on huge demand from emerging markets such as India and China. While growth in those countries will easily outstrip that of the developed world this year -- U.S. recession or not -- it may not be as strong as hoped.
UBS economist Andrew Cates said his measure of emerging economic growth compared with that of the developed world had flattened recently.
"The data here bear watching, insofar as Asia's resilience to a U.S. slowdown is a cornerstone of the 'decoupling' thesis which has many adherents among investors," he said.
Analysts at State Street Global Markets said the thesis was already losing adherents. In its weekly research note dated January 10, State Street said investors had slashed their positions in emerging Asian markets in the last three months.
"Institutional investors are not among the proponents of the theory that somehow the world barely sniffles when the U.S. goes down with a bad case of flu," they wrote.
Please read the words in bold. If institutional investors have slashed their positions in emerging markets in the last three months, how can our Prime Minister be so positive that “foreign investors are coming” in droves to Malaysia? Like I said, this is all pre-election hype. You are forewarned. Don’t get burned by this hype.
This temporary surge of the KLSE benefits the UMNO money men, for they know in advance when they are pushing the market up and when they are unloading. Most of you guys (and especially those Chinese punters who are gambling before the Chinese New Year) will be burnt all over. You won’t survive this fire!
MATTHIAS CHANG

xtracted from Malaysia Today.