When will our stock market recover?

THE world’s stock markets, including Malaysia’s, have recovered lately.
Some analysts have viewed this recovery as window dressing activities while others have called it bear market rallies.
And there are those who wonder whether we have seen the worst.
They are eager to know whether the current stock market level has reflected all the negative news, like the sharp drop in consumer spending, higher unemployment rates or lower sales and lower profits for most of the listed companies in the coming corporate result announcements.
Every investor wants to know when will the market recover.
Some investors may be excited about the current stock market level as a lot of good quality stocks have been hammered down to attractive levels, and are keen to start accumulating them.
However, if the stock market continues to dip for long periods, certain investors may run out of “bullets” to average down their purchasing prices.
Then, they will start losing interest in the stock market as they do not have cash to purchase further and their earlier purchases also start to show losses.
We need to prepare ourselves for the market turnaround.
However, we need to be patient and wait for the right time to invest.
In this article, we will look into the past two major downcycles: the 1998 crash and 2000 crash versus the current 2008 crash.
From the table, it can be seen that the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled by almost 80% in a period of 18 months during the 1998 crash versus a drop of 45% in a period of 13 months during the 2000 crash.
The percentage drop and duration of the 2000 crash were much less severe and shorter compared to the 1998 crash.
For the current 2008 crash, our KLCI has plunged by 47% to its lowest level of 801 points on Oct 28.
If investors believe that the current crash is quite similar to the 2000 crash, then we may have seen the worst as the current percentage drop of 47% is near the 2000 crash of 45%.
However, if the 2008 crash mirrors the 1998 crash, then we may have to wait until the KLCI touches about the 300-point level (assuming the same 79.4% drop in the 1998 crash) before we can see any real recovery.
Hence, we may have to wait for another nine months or until September 2009 (assuming the same duration of 18 months).
We do not think the 2008 crash is similar to the 1998 crash.
Our current economic situation, like central bank reserves, the health of the banking sector as well as economic fundamentals, are much better compared to 1998. However, as mentioned earlier, we need to prepare ourselves for the worst.
What to expect from here on?
Our market will try to absorb all the negative news.
As long as the market continues to drop as a result of negative news, we know we have not seen the bottom yet.
We have to wait for the day when the stock market refuses to come down even when it is loaded with massive negative news; that should be the right time to buy.
Unfortunately, based on our past observations, by then most investors may not have any more cash to purchase or they will still worry about the economic situation.
Investors need to understand that stock market cycles are always ahead of economic cycles.
Normally, when the stock market hits the bottom, the economic situation is uncertain or is still getting worse.

xtrated frm : The Star Online 31/12/08 written by Ooi Kok Hwa

Planning to buy penny stocks?

MANY counters have been heavily battered following the recent stock market meltdown, and they continue to trade at historically low valuations. What’s even more attractive is that many counters, including some fundamentally good ones, have now become penny stocks and the list keeps growing as the bear continues its rampage on the market.
In Malaysia, penny stocks are defined as counters that trade below RM1 per share.
Under normal market conditions, penny stocks do not attract much interest, particularly among institutional investors, because they are deemed too risky and their returns rather insignificant to justify investment.
This is because penny stocks are usually associated with smallish companies that are less resilient, and do not have a sustainable business model.
“The reasons for these counters being quoted at low prices are because of the recurrent losses from their business operations and the extremely negative perception about their quality,” an analyst at a bank-backed research company explains.
Nevertheless, to some retail investors, penny stocks are cheap counters that could sometimes do wonders and provide decent returns.
At face value, these counters are highly affordable. And because they trade at such low prices, penny stocks have a limited downside risk.
This is possibly one factor that could attract some buying interest, particularly in the current volatile market condition, as investors seek to cap their losses in the event their equity investments turn sour.
However, analysts caution investors against being carried away with penny stocks that may appear to be attractive.
This is because many of these counters are inherently risky and have a higher chance of crashing out of the market in bad times.
Generally, investors should base their buying decision on the valuation of a stock, and not its absolute price because most of the penny stocks are not worthy investments, say analysts.
But if penny stocks are their flavours, analysts advise investors to do a thorough background check on the companies before jumping on the penny-stock bandwagon.
Investing in penny stocks need more research and monitoring compared with blue-chip counters, and investors need to be alert and watch out for news affecting the companies, they say.
Selective bets
TA head of research Kaladher Govindan recommends investors who are considering buying penny stocks to look for counters with good fundamentals and those that attract strong volumes.
“As in any investment, ensuring that a counter has good business fundamentals is very important, otherwise investors can face difficulty when they want to dispose of their shares later on,” he explains.
Aseambankers head of research Vincent Khoo points out that investors should also consider the sector in which the penny stock operates to ensure that the counter can still generate positive earnings in the midst of a challenging economic environment. Counters operating in defensive sectors such as consumer food, utility, gaming and rubber gloves have a higher chance of riding through the crisis.
Another criteria to justify a penny stock investment, according to analysts, is that the companies must have sufficient cash flow or the ability to generate short-term cash to last them through the economic slowdown, otherwise investors could risk losing their entire investment in the stock.
“A company’s cash-flow position helps to gauge whether the company can remain as a going-concern when the economy enters a difficult patch few months down the road,” an analyst explains.
“Pay attention also to the gearing level of the companies, and compare that to their industry average; highly geared companies are generally not preferred because they indicate higher risk,” he adds.
Staying power
Among the penny stocks favoured by analysts include oil and gas counters such as KNM Group Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd, Scomi Group Bhd, SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd.
Other penny stocks that also look attractive to some of them are Sunway Holdings Bhd, Zelan Bhd as well as real estate investment trusts, or REITs.
The list is not exhaustive, and analysts have differing opinion on various counters. The issue is, says a broker, investors have to do their own due diligence before investing.
Having penny stocks in the portfolio can be a good idea if the counters have strong business fundamentals but investors have to be prepared to hold on to these stocks for the long term to see decent returns.
According to TA’s Kaladher, most penny stocks do not have institutional following; therefore, it is difficult to push their prices up.
Generally, they are also thinly traded, which makes them relatively less liquid and difficult to sell. So, the prices of some penny stocks can remain stagnant for quite a while.
“Turnaround for penny stocks tends to be longer, hence investors have to be patient enough to be able to enjoy the upside potential of these counters,” an analyst says.
Aseambankers’ Khoo adds that certain penny stocks have the potential to offer investors multiple gains over the long run at current entry levels.
For instance, some penny stocks are actually worth more than twice their current market prices based on the company’s future earnings potential.
These stocks are currently trading at penny-stock levels due to poor market sentiment. When the market rebounds, these stocks are expected to gradually recover to their fair values.
Strategic approach
No doubt investing in selective penny stocks can be somewhat profitable in the long run. But most analysts still feel investors should take the current opportunity to accumulate blue-chip counters instead, if they could afford them.
According to OSK head of research Chris Eng, investors’ attention now is actually more focused on blue-chip counters because they are safer assets and generally offer good dividends.
Besides, most of these counters are currently trading below their net worth (some have fallen by more than 50% year-to-date), hence making them attractive buys.
In addition, blue-chip counters are normally the first to recover when the KLCI rebounds, he says. And if there is window-dressing ahead of the year-end and New Year festivals, blue-chip counters are usually the ones that will benefit.
OSK expects the full impact of the global economic slowdown to hit the local market in the first quarter next year, with a possibility of the KLCI staging a rebound in the second half.
TA Research, on the other hand, sees the second half of next year as the time when the KLCI would reach bottom; hence the best time to buy stocks for long-term gains.
The current market valuation may be cheap (with the KLCI having fallen by more than 40% year-to-date), but many investors dare not take up long-term buying positions yet for fear of a “value-trap” – a situation where they are drawn into buying an undervalued stock, only to have the stock price decline even further after that.
Kaladher says: “Due to the prevailing uncertainties and volatile market condition, most investors are currently trading only for the short term for potential ‘bear-market rally’”.
There is definitely more downward pressure in the days ahead for the local stock market. But as stock prices continue to fall, equities as an asset class will become even more appealing from the long-term point of view. This is particularly so in the midst of low interest rates and high inflation that eats up the real value of our bank savings.
So, whether investors are looking at blue chip or selected penny stocks, they can still benefit from the future growth of these counters when the current turmoil settles.

By CECILIA KOK xtracted from The Star Online

Understanding stock market rumours

THE stock market is always filled with lots of rumours. Some may be true while others may have certain intended purposes. However, rumours can cause a great impact on companies’ stock prices.
The stock market always says that we should buy on rumours and sell on facts. Certain rumours may not be true but traders may still be able to benefit by buying the stocks based on the rumours and sell immediately once the concerned parties correct the rumours and reveal the actual facts. In this article, we will look into the various types and characteristics of stock market rumours.
What is a rumour? It is information that is not verified, but it is important and the recipients may be interested to know more about it. In most times, it is created to cause others to believe in it. It can reach out to a large group of people by transmitting through the mass media.
Over the past few weeks, there was one plantation company faced with some negative news. Some investors who owned the stock sold some of their holdings as they were worried that the rumours might be true.
Even though some of the negative rumours were true, the real impact was not as bad as the rumours that had been circulating in the market. Hence, we should not be trapped into panic selling.
Given that investors always overact on rumours, we need to be careful and check further whether those negative rumours may have been reflected in the stock prices.
Based on a study by Ralph L. Rosnow (1991) titled “Inside rumour”, there are three main types of rumours - wish, dread and non-involvement rumours.
Wish rumours are intended to create hope for some positive consequences to happen whereas dread rumours are intended to create fear and cause some disappointing consequences. Non-involvement rumours will not cause any impact to the recipients.
However, some will still want to spread them as they want to show that they are knowledgeable or they just like to do it.
How do we deal with rumours? Should we ignore or pay attention to them?
In Malaysia, based on our experience, most of the negative rumours on certain companies are true.
We need to pay attention to them. We may need to check further on the real impact from those rumours if we own the stocks. Even though sometimes they may not be true, we feel that it is safer to avoid holding on to such stocks.
On the other hand, we should put less weight on positive rumours. Sometimes certain owners like to liquidate their holdings by creating positive rumours.
Once the general public start to believe in them and start chasing the stocks, normally they will be the main sellers of those stocks. Some examples of these rumours are like “The managing director of this company is buying the stock”, “This company may be able to get some big contracts from the Government”, etc.

Rumour vs Sources

A rumour cannot travel very far if its source is not reliable. If a rumour is spreading through a reliable mass media, then it can travel very far, last longer and can cause a major impact.
Once, the rumours have been generated and start transmitting, there will be some changes to the original messages.
According to Gordon Willard Allport and Leo Joseph Postman in their study titled “The basic psychology of rumour”, there are three levels of changes to the messages - levelling, sharpening and assimilation.
At the first level, when the rumour travels, it gets shorter and more concise. This is to help it to be understood easily in order to travel further.
At the sharpening level, a lot of details will be left out. As a result, it will become clearer and more focused and can have greater intended impact. At the assimilation level, in order to have a greater impact to the recipients, the rumour will be added on with certain elements that are in line with the recipients’ habits, interests and sentiments.
Understanding stock market rumours can help us to know how to deal with them. In short, we should pay less attention to positive rumours.
Instead, place more attention to negative rumours on certain companies, especially those that we are interested in.

Out Of Topic

Yoga bercanggah dengan Islam?

Oleh ABDULFATAH HARON IBRAHIM

MATLAMAT yoga Hindu dan tarekat tasauf seakan-akan sama iaitu mahukan mystical union atau fang atau lebur diri. Latihan pernafasan ada dalam yoga juga dalam tasauf tarekat Naqsyabandiyah. Isu ini bukanlah baru.
Kedengaran banyak rungutan kebelakangan ini kerana orang ramai amat tidak senang dengan program televisyen di negara ini yang menggalakkan orang ramai bersenam cara yoga. Mereka ingin tahu tentang yoga dan Islam.
Penulis berpendapat memang ada pengaruh yoga Hindu dalam doktrin tasauf Islam. Matlamat yoga dan tasauf seakan-akan sama iaitu mahu mencapai mystical union dengan Allah atau nirwana. Ini adalah hampir menyamai fana dalam tasauf Islam.
Jika perkara ini hanya kebetulan, tasauf sudah mengadakan bidaah; jika memang hakikat ini adalah pengaruh wahat al-wujud Hindu (bermaksud Brahma atau Tuhan ialah segala-galanya). Ini bererti tarekat dan tasauf adalah Islam kehinduan.
Hakikat ini boleh disaksikan dengan jelas apabila mengkaji matlamat senaman yoga termasuk pentingnya berlatih cara pernafasan. Tarekat Naqsyabandiyah juga ada latihan pernafasan.
Penulis pernah terlihat sekumpulan pelajar duduk di tanah lapang dan bersama mereka seorang Sikh menyebut 'om' atau 'aum' jelas kedengaran beberapa kali. Selepas itu penulis lihat bagaimana mereka berlatih melakukan pelbagai gaya senaman yoga (pelbagai gaya kedudukan badan dalam mengamalkan senaman yoga).
Buku-buku yoga dalam bentuk saiz poket dengan pelbagai judul boleh didapati di kedai-kedai buku, sama ada di dalam atau di luar kampus universiti itu. Ini menunjukkan yoga mendapat perhatian masyarakat setempat.
Masyarakat Barat khususnya Amerika Syarikat (AS) adalah masyarakat mengejar kebendaan yang tidak mengenal puas menjadikan rohaniah mereka kekosongan.
Semasa di Universiti Columbia, New York, penulis sempat memerhati aktiviti di sebuah gereja di pinggir kampus. Hanya beberapa orang berumur yang berulang-alik sembahyang pada hari Ahad di gereja itu. Pemuda dan pemudi tidak kelihatan. Gejala ini menunjukkan bahawa gereja tidak dapat mempengaruhi jiwa muda mereka.
Penulis juga berkesempatan memerhati dan mendengar ramai pemuda dan pemudi rancak menyeru: 'Hare Krisna Hare Rama Hare Hare' di jalan-jalan terbuka, berpakaian kuning membalut badan seperti sari Buddha dengan memalu gendang dan alat-alat muzik India yang lain.
Kumpulan ini mempunyai 26 cawangan termasuk di luar AS iaitu Hamburg, London, Paris, Toronto dan Vancouver. Itu pengalaman tahun 1970-an.
Melihat yoga dari dekat ialah mencantum dan mengaitkan roh individu dengan roh universal di mana sekali imbas pandangan itu adalah janggal, tetapi apabila kita renungi matlamat asas Kristian, kenyataan tersebut adalah munasabah.
Perbezaan asas di antara kedua-dua kenyataan ini ialah bagi Kristian, kesatuan itu selepas mati, manakala bagi yoga, dengan latihan yang gigih semasa hidup di dunia ini dapat mencapai penyatuan roh ketuhanan.
Apabila disebut yoga ialah mencantum dan mengaitkan roh individu dengan roh universal (Union of the Personal Spirit of God), ini menyerupai ajaran tasauf yang digelar ittihad dan/atau wahdat al-wujud dan atau al-fana.
Manakala apabila kita renungi matlamat asas Kristian iaitu penyatuan abadi roh dengan Tuhan bererti yoga sesuai dengan akidah Kristian.
Jika ini ada dalam Kristian maka konsep seperti itu tidak ada dalam Islam kecuali tasauf yang mereka gelar fana. Fana tidak ada dalam Quran dan sunah. Adakah kaum tasauf mencipta sendiri?
Adakah ini bererti bidaah diambil daripada Hindu? Ini dakhil al-Islam, bererti mereka menambah ajaran Islam. Memang Hindu agama wahdat al-wujud. Fakta ini pun sudah cukup bagi menunjukkan bahawa yoga itu ajaran agama Hindu yang menyalahi akidah Islam, tetapi tidak menyalahi ajaran tasauf Islam.
Di antara falsafah yoga adalah untuk mendapatkan ketenteraman jiwa dan kesihatan badan. Erti asal kata yoga ialah 'kok' atau ikat. Yoga adalah satu cara disiplin dan ikatan seseorang dengan roh alam.
Bhagavad Gita sebuah kitab suci Hindu adalah sumber utama ajaran yoga.
Dalam mencari ketenteraman jiwa di antara lain ialah menerima ajaran falsafah Hindu yang mengutuk kebendaan. Kerana inginkan kebendaan inilah yang menyebabkan manusia hidup gelisah dan kecewa. Buangkan keinginan tiadalah kecewa.
Mengamalkan
Berusahalah dengan sedaya upaya supaya keinginan itu dapat dikikiskan. Yang bersikap begini ialah falsafah Hindu ortodoks dan Theravada Buddhism. Mereka perlu mengamalkan yoga yang antara lain termasuklah sikap menjauhkan diri daripada perkara-perkara yang menarik berahi nafsu dengan pergi bertapa ke dalam gua-gua atau dalam rimba belantara. Kosongkan fikiran daripada sebarang keinginan.
Insan idola bagi Hindu-Buddha ialah orang yoga; orang yang berusaha membasmikan perbezaan di antara diri dan objek-objek, malah basmikan perbezaan di antara objek-objek itu sendiri.
Terdapat banyak risalah yang menerangkan bagaimanakah cara mengamal dan melakukan ansana yoga. Semua ini dengan tujuan dapat bersatu dengan roh alam.
Di antaranya sebelum melakukan ansana, yoga ini adalah dianggap penting mengetahui cara melakukannya yang betul: (a) melakukan dan menguasai cara-cara bernafas (bukan lagi seperti cara bernafas biasa sehari-hari); (b) berdoa, termasuk menyebut kalimah suci 'om' atau 'aum'; dan (c) bermeditasi. Kesemuanya ini adalah cara agama Hindu.
Cara meditasi utama ketika hendak mengamalkan yoga ialah konsentrasi pada satu titik. Ini mungkin merupakan perkara fizikal, seperti titik cahaya di dinding, memusatkan perhatian mata kepada batang hidung sendiri atau boleh jadi satu buah fikiran atau kewujudan Tuhan sendiri. Semua fikiran yang bertaburan dan perhatian yang berselerak jadi tersusun rapi ditujukan kepada maha satu.
Tujuannya ialah supaya boleh dikuasai, boleh dihapuskan atau semua fikiran yang bercelaru, sama ada datangnya dari pancaindera atau kesedaran batin diikat-sekat dengan melakukan konsentrasi. Pengamal yoga sebenar mengamalkan konsentrasi ini ke atas satu titik pada bila-bila masa, dan terhapuslah kecelaruan fikiran.
Mengamal yoga adalah keriangan sejati yang tiada taranya. Jika ada amalan pernafasan di kalangan orang Islam seperti dalam tarekat tasauf Naqshabandi, kemungkinan semuanya itu berasal dari yoga Hindu atau bidaah rekaan sendiri. Tidak boleh disebut amalan agama Islam kerana tidak ada asal dalam Quran dan sunah.
Sehingga kini tiada terdengar yoga Islam tetapi ada sebuah buku bertajuk Christian Yoga ditulis oleh seorang paderi Katholik, J. M. Dechanel. Buku ini mengatakan mengamalkan yoga digalakkan sebagai jalan ke arah merealisasikan ajaran Kristian.
Yoga sebagai 'sambungan' atau 'kok' Roh Individu dengan Roh Alam, (Atma dengan Brahma) iaitu kesatuan Roh Individu dengan Tuhan. Matlamat terakhir dalam ajaran Kristian ialah bersatu roh dengan Tuhan selepas matinya jasad, tetapi bagi Hindu dalam Hindu pun sudah boleh dicapai. Mereka gelar Tuhan itu Brahma: Atma bersatu dengan Brahma.
Bezanya dengan Kristian bersatu itu selepas mati tetapi bagi Hindu tercapainya kesatuan itu semasa nyawa masih dikandung badan di dalam dunia ini lagi.
Terdapat di kalangan orang Melayu apabila mengeluarkan nafas sebut Allah dan apabila menarik nafas sebut Hu. Amalan seperti ini digelar zikir nafas. Dalam kitab Pati Rahsia ada mengandungi bab membicarakan ilmu nafas dengan panjang lebar.
Jika ada orang yang mengamalkan senaman asana-asana tanpa memikirkan falsafahnya dan kehinduannya, jika dia berjaya sampai ke peringkat dapat beribadat dengan Brahman, dan mengalami serta mendapat keriangan yang tiada taranya, dia akan menjadi seperti kebanyakan ahli tasauf mulhid atau menganut wahdat al-wujud, syariat Islam akan menjadi ejekannya.
Hakikatnya, kurang senaman adalah salah satu penyakit kemajuan dunia moden: perang merebut hasil minyak dari dalam tanah, memaksa orang menggunakan sebarang alat bermotor bagi membolehkan minyak dijual. Hidup bernadikan segala-galanya dengan kuasa minyak, terhakislah senaman badan secara natural. Lalu orang Islam ditawarkan senaman yoga.
Secara tidak langsung dan tanpa disedari, senaman yoga ini mendorong orang Islam bakal jadi murtad menganut wahdat al-wujud Hindu. Agama Kristian ada bersefahaman dengan Hindu dalam masalah amalan senaman yoga. Islam tidak.
Semasa penulis hidup di kampung, tidak ada siapa yang merungut perlukan senaman. Kerja-kerja kampung yang pelbagai itu semuanya dilakukan dengan tenaga manual dan fizikal, bukan mesin dan enjin. Rungutan kurang senaman tidak pernah terdengar semasa penulis hidup di kampung.
Semasa hidup di kampung pada zaman itu tidak ada siapa yang memiliki kenderaan empat roda tetapi ke sana sini dengan berbasikal sahaja. Didorong oleh rasa nostalgia hidup di kampung, penulis mengayuh basikal dari rumah ke tempat kerja. Hanya mengambil masa 10 minit.
Dengan cara ini, cukuplah senaman yang diperlukan oleh badan, fikir penulis. Pada mulanya ada mata terbeliak kehairanan (barangkali) melihat penulis menunggang basikal. Penulis peduli apa.
Tetapi pada akhirnya terpaksa juga mengalah kerana laluan pejalan kaki dan orang berbasikal tidak disediakan oleh pihak berkuasa. (Tiada suara yang menggalakkan rakyat berbasikal untuk senaman, ekonomi, mengurangkan sebab-sebab pencemaran udara).
Penulis berbasikal terpaksa berkongsi jalan yang sama dilalui oleh kenderaan empat roda yang memacu seperti peluru. Pernah nyaris- nyaris dilanyak oleh peluru empat roda itu.

petikan dr Utusan Online...

Untuk renungan bersama...gunakan ilmu bukan nya akal sahaja.

A group of bears is pulling the bull

Can the bull stands as so many bears are waiting to "baham" him? Actually many factors now affected our mkt..it's not solely by credit crunch...the other factor is "keyakinan terhadap ketahanan pasaran".

Great Depression versus now

By OOI KOK HWA..

As much as there are similarities between the two crises, the damage caused by the current turmoil is likely to be less severe given the swift actions of central banks.
AS a result of the recent financial tsunami, some experts have started to ponder whether we are headed for a depression.
The current credit crunch and the meltdown in some financial institutions were quite similar to what happened during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
In this article we will analyse the reasons behind the 1929 Wall St crash, which kickstarted the Great Depression and compare it to the current situation to identify any signs that a depression is approaching.
Milton Friedman, the leading advocate of monetarism, argued that every great depression had been accompanied or preceded by a monetary collapse.
According to Ben Bernanke, the US Fed chairman, the main reason behind the Great Crash of 1929 was due to the tight monetary policies adopted during that period.
He said the high interest rates back then caused the US economy to fall into a recession that led to the great market crash in October 1929.
As the US dollar was backed by gold, the acute selling of dollars for gold resulted in a run on the dollar.
The Fed continued to increase interest rates in an effort to preserve the value of US dollar.
As a result, high interest rates caused bankruptcies for many companies.
At the peak of the Great Depression, the US unemployment rate hit 25%
To rub salt into the wound, massive withdrawals of cash by panicky depositors were the last straw that brought about the total collapse of financial institutions.
In that period, bank deposits were uninsured and the collapse of the banks caused depositors to lose their savings.
And due to the economic uncertainties, the surviving banks were reluctant to give out new loans.
Another culprit in the 1929 crash was margin financing which caused excessive speculation in the stock market.
Investors needed only to put up 10% capital and borrow the rest from the bank to invest in the stock market.
The collapse of stock prices led to margin calls and further selldowns.
Coming back to the 2008 crash, the banking and credit-market crisis was mainly due to the property boom and subprime bust.
The collapse of subprime loans sparked the credit crunch, which dragged some financial institutions into trouble.
As a result of the securitisation and the creation of innovative financial products like collateralised-debt obligations and credit-default swaps, the collapse of one financial institution had a domino effect, leading to the collapse of other financial institutions.
Now, the pertinent question is whether we are in a long bear market and heading for a depression.
We believe a depression like the one in 1929 may not happen exactly the way it did before.
Given the fast actions taken by central banks around the world, the damage caused by this crisis will be less severe than the one in 1929.
Central banks around the world have been putting in concerted efforts to make sure the global economy will not fall into a depression.
The rescue packages being implemented throughout the world will help stabilise the financial system.
We believe the reduction of interest rates and the increase in money supply will help cushion the impact of the credit crunch.
Besides, deposits placed with most financial institutions are guaranteed by central banks.
Even though the US unemployment rate may rise to 10% from 6.1% currently, it is still far below the peak of 25% hit during the Great Depression.
In the 1929 crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average took about three years to reach bottom in July 1932 from its peak in September 1929.
From the peak to the trough the Dow lost about 90%.
The Great Depression in the US started in August 1929 and ended only in March 1933.
The stock market started to recover eight months before the US economy ended its depression.
At present, the Dow has already dropped for a year from its peak in October 2007, currently down about 37.5% against its peak of 14,164 points on Oct 9, 2007.
In view of the possible economic recession in most developed countries, we think the Dow will drop further from current levels.
Nevertheless, we believe it will recover much faster and the magnitude of the fall will be far less severe than the one in 1929.
Lastly, we believe the stock market will eventually recover.
At this point, to be more prudent, we may take a “wait and see” approach until things stabilise.

Guessing game over Valuecap’s stock picks

THE market has began to speculate which stocks state-owned fund manager Valuecap Sdn Bhd will buy, analysts say, pointing out that many investors will be looking to ride on its coat-tails.
“Investors will always look to ride on big funds like these. Whether rightly or wrongly, the participation of big funds tends to push up the share prices,” said the head of research at an investment bank.
On Monday, the government said it would give Valuecap an extra RM5 billion, boosting its fund size to some RM10 billion, so the latter can buy undervalued stocks to provide support to the recently battered stock market.
Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said yesterday that the government would get the RM5 billion by taking a loan from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
“The RM5 bilion announced for Valuecap is not part of the 2009 budget allocation, but instead is a consolidated loan from the EPF,” Najib said on the sidelines of an event in Kuala Lumpur.
Analysts voiced surprise that the extra funds would be coming from the EPF, pointing out that the fund also makes investments in the stock market.
However, some said since the funds are meant to boost the equity market, it made sense that Valuecap should be handling it rather than the EPF, as the latter allocates a substantial portion of its investment portfolio in bonds.
Valuecap, a highly-secretive fund set up in 2002 to buy undervalued stocks, invests specifically in the Malaysian equity market and is jointly owned by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, Permodalan Nasional Bhd and the Retirement Fund (Inc).
The government has left it up to Valuecap to decide how to distribute the fund.
Analysts generally believe it will be used to invest in solid index-linked stocks.
OSK Research said the funds could well be used to buy small- and medium-cap companies that present good value following the market’s recent sharp falls.
However, it believes Valuecap could get more “bang for its buck” by focusing on selected blue-chips.
In a report yesterday, OSK highlighted 11 potential targets on the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) that Valuecap may go for — MISC, Petronas Gas, DiGi, British American Tobacco, Petronas Dagangan, MAS, Sime Darby, Maybank, IOI, AMMB and MMC.
As it stands, however, funds like Valuecap will never reveal what stocks it invests in. It is obliged to make the information public only if its investments in a company exceed the five per cent threshold.
Yesterday, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said the extra RM5 billion being pumped in is sufficient for Valuecap to buy undervalued stocks and the government had no plans for now to give it more funds.
Some analysts, however, believe RM5 billion isn’t enough to shore up the market at all.
Citigroup’s Choong Wai Kee said the sum represents less than one per cent of the overall market capitalisation and less than five per cent of shares held by foreign strategic and portfolio investors.
And even if the full RM5 billion were to be pumped into the KLCI, it would theoretically lift up the key benchmark index by only 10 points, said OSK acting head of research Chris Eng.
“Then again, the RM5 billion would have a multiplier effect that is larger than its actual sum as the buying activity, or even anticipated buying activity by Valuecap could lift sentiment and push the KLCI higher,” he said. The thin liquidity on the stock market will also see the RM5 billion having a multiplier effect, he added.

retracted from : The Star Online - Business Times

Another Trading Instrument- FKLI

Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index Futures Contract (FKLI)

Stock Index futures contract is one of the most useful financial instruments in today’s global economy. Even though stock index futures contracts was introduced for trading as recently as 1982; futures trading and the concept behind these financial instruments have evolved over the last few centuries. With the commencement of trading in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI) futures contract (FKLI) on the Kuala Lumpur Options & Financial Futures Exchange (KLOFFE), the Malaysian capital markets have reached another plateau of maturity.

What is stock index futures contract?

Stock Index futures contract is an agreement between a seller and a buyer to respectively deliver and take delivery of a basket of shares which makes up the stock index, at predetermined price but at a specific future date. However, almost all Stock Index futures contracts (and similarly FKLI) provide for cash settlement in lieu of actual delivery of the basket of shares. The KLSE CI futures contract is a stock index futures contract that is based on the KLSE CI.

What are the FKLI contract specifications?

Contact code : FKLI


Underlying instrument : Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI)


Contract size : KLSE CI futures mutiplied by RM50.00


Minimum price fluctuation : 0.5 index point valued at RM25.00


Daily price limits : 20% per trading session for the respective contract months except the spot month.


Contract months : Spot month, the next month and the next two calendar quarterly months. The calendar quarterly months are March, June September and December.


Trading hours : First trading session : 0845 hours to 1245 hoursSecond trading session : 1430 hours to 1715 hours (GMT + 8.00hrs)


Final trading day : Last business day of the contract month.


Final settlement : Cash settlement based on the final settlement value.


Final settlement value : The final settlement value shall be the average value, rounded to the nearest 0.5 of an index point (values of 0.25 or 0.75 and above being rounded upwards) of the KLSE CI for the last half hour of trading on the final trading day, excepting the highest and lowest values.


Margins : Initial margins are calculated risked based and determinded by MDCH using the Theoretical Inter-market Marginign Systems (TIMS). Variation margins are based on daily marked-to-market valuation.

Does long-term investing work when bourse swings wildly?

By Noripah Kamso

FUND managers, me included, are forever telling investors to expect returns over the long-term. Results may vary from year to year, but over the long-term you may expect about nine per cent to 12 per cent potential returns annually.
We like to say things like: “In a bad year, the downside can be 10 per cent or more” and “In a good year the upside could be as high as 15 per cent or more”.
We also caution that risk and reward are inextricably intertwined, hence one should not expect to reap high returns without undergoing high risk and volatility.
However, we usually conclude, over the long-term it makes sense to invest in equities.
Now all that advice sounds good in theory but it’s hard to believe in it in reality when the market soars 26 per cent one year, then plunges 15 per cent another year, before swinging back up again. An investor wouldn’t be blamed for thinking, “This is madness! I don’t have the appetite for all these wild swings. What are those fund managers talking about?”
I hope, in this article, to shed some light on the issue and show that there is a method to the madness after all. Let’s look at how the stock market has performed since it started in 1976, as measured by the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI):
Interesting points to note from this data are (See chart):
# In its 31 years of existence, the KLCI has hit the magic nine per cent to 12 per cent return range exactly once
# In seven of those years, the KLCI lost more than 10 per cent
# In 14 of those years, the KLCI gained more than 15 per cent
# Therefore, in 21 out of its 31 years of existence, the KLCI has either really disappointed investors or made them extremely happy Going by this performance, it would seem as if fund managers don’t know what they’re talking about, because the stock market has either performed outstandingly well or very poorly.
It is true that in the majority of its years, the KLCI has been pretty volatile. That’s why we advise investing over the long term, to ride out the volatility that will happen from year to year.
If investors were to analyse the numbers from 1977 until 2007, they would be surprised to learn that the KLCI enjoyed annualised returns of 9.15 per cent per annum.
Well how about that? This figure lies within the magic range of nine per cent to 12 per cent annual returns. Analysis also shows that the KLCI has registered an average yearly return of 13.33 per cent since its inception.
It is very important that investors expect returns to fluctuate widely from year-toyear, and they should probably even welcome this volatility. It is the market’s erratic journey over the long term that enables investors to get the nine per cent to 12 per cent annualised returns range. This is why a fund manager can sound like a broken record sometimes because the ending of the story doesn’t change. The important thing to realise is this: in order to get to the end of the story one must begin it, by investing.
So, when is the best time to invest? In my view, it is in the investor’s best interest to invest as much and as close to the beginning of the year as possible. In fact, I would take that year-end bonus and just invest it straight away. And I’m not saying this just because I’m in the business of managing people’s funds.
The reason is very simple and clear: in 21 out of the last 31 years, the KLCI registered a positive return. Therefore funds invested at the beginning of every year would have yielded positive returns two out of every three years, or 67 per cent of the time.
Alternatively, investors should invest regularly whenever they can, either using the ringgit-cost averaging or value averaging methods, which I will explain in detail in a later article.
In conclusion, long term investing works because it rides out stock market volatilities to give the potential returns in the nine per cent to 12 per cent range. Investors should start investing to not miss out on these potentially attractive returns.

Datuk Noripah Kamso is the chief executive of CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd.

Some track market bottom to catch stocks at the lowest price

RECENTLY, our stock market has been affected by a lot of negative news, like unsettling US subprime issues, the weak economic growth as well as high political risks. Many retailers have lost confidence in the market.

Yet there are some who are trying their best to predict the stock market bottom, hoping to catch stocks at the cheapest price.

It is always a tough job to predict the lowest point in any stock market cycles. It requires some understanding of business cycles, which can be interpreted as fluctuations in economic activity.
It can be made up of expansions and contractions in the overall economy.

A peak in the business cycle happens when the economy reaches its peak and starts to decline. A trough in the business cycle occurs when the economy touches its bottom and starts to recover.
This is the turning point of any business cycle. Normally, stock market at this stage will show a confirmed sign of market turnaround.

The movement of stock prices is highly influenced by the companies’ profits. From a macro view, there are three determinants for corporate profits - consumer spending, industrial production, and services and capital spending.

Among the three, the key determinant is consumer spending.
As a result of the hike in oil prices, a high inflation rate and the overall weak economic growth have caused some slowdown in consumer spending.
As the main driver of consumer spending is personal income, which is largely derived from wages and the salaries, high inflation rate has caused some consumers to hold back on their spending.

To companies, the weak consumer spending will lead to lower demand for their products and eventually build up in inventories.

Most companies may take measures to reduce inventories, first by reducing purchases. Some factories may start to slow down their production if they see demand is getting weaker and, if this continues, it will lead to excess capacity, which subsequently might lead to retrenchment.
The overall industrial production rate will slow down while the unemployment rate will go up higher.

If the situation continues to weaken, some manufacturers may hold back plant expansion programmes.
Some proposed mergers or acquisitions may be put aside as not many company owners want to take the risk of expanding their business during this situation.
The slowdown in capital spending will lead to a further decline in future corporate profits.
The stock market is sensitive to future corporate profits. As consumer spending is the main determinant in corporate profits, any weakening in consumer spending will cause a big sell-down in stock prices.
This explained why the market sentiment was weak whenever oil prices edged up higher.

Where are we now?

According to Joseph H. Ellis in his book Ahead of the Curve, there are four stages of economic downturn -

Stage 1: The peak;

Stage 2: A modest slowing;

Stage 3: Intensifying worry; and

Stage 4: The advent of recession.

Stage 1 is where consumer spending and real gross domestic product (GDP) are increasing at a strong pace whereas Stage 2 is where the growth rate of consumer spending and real GDP only shows a slight decline.

Given our present situation, we are in Stage 3 with a higher inflation rate, slower growth in consumer spending and real GDP.
At this stage, the market may tumble about 20% from the peak. Some economists begin to worry that there are some possibilities that the overall economy may drop into a recession.
We do not think we will enter Stage 4 even with further decline in consumer spending and higher unemployment rate. It is not necessary that every time when we are in Stage 3, it will surely be followed by Stage 4. There are periods when we may revert to Stage 2 from Stage 3.
The decline in oil prices recently has provided some relief. Even though some economists commented that the worst may not be over yet, lower oil prices will contribute to a lower inflation rate.

Even though at this juncture it is still very difficult to confirm the trend reversal, the recent drop in oil prices has definitely helped to improve the overall consumer sentiment.
Understanding business cycles will help us to understand better stock market cycles. We always believe that we need to know what causes the market movement, then hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

by Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser licensed by Securities Commission and the managing partner of MRR Consulting.

ALLAH S.W.T LEBIH MENGETAHUI

petikan dr HarakahDaily.Net
Salmiyah Harun, Nyza Ayob & Nuha Rahim Thu Aug 07, 08 2:19:13 pm MYT

KUALA LUMPUR, 7 Ogos (Hrkh) - "Saya dah tanda tangan ikat jamin peribadi saya, dan pasport saya masih berada bersama saya . Saya hargai pendirian yang diambil peguam saya.Yang saya kesalkan ialah pendakwaan ini. Walaupun saya yakin berdasarkan cara pendakwaan itu, pendakwa seolah dipaksa. Kalau tidak mustahil pendakwaan itu dibuat," demikian antara kata-kata Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim sebaik sahaja keluar dari kamar Mahkamah Seksyen Jenayah 1 pada jam 11.15 pagi ini, di Kompleks Mahkamah Jalan Duta.

Penasihat KeADILan itu mengaku tidak bersalah atas tuduhan melakukan hubungan seks di luar tabii dengan pembantunya Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan penghujung Jun lalu.
Pihak pendakwa tidak membantah Anwar dibenar ikat jamin dan mencadangkan ketua umum PKR itu dikenakan jaminan RM20,000 dan menyerahkan pasportnya.
"Dahulu dalam media tempatan dihebahkan bahawa ada penderaan dan paksaan. Semalam Perdana Menteri, Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi mengeluarkan kenyataan tidak bertanggung jawab mengatakan ada rogol, tetapi hari ini pendakwaan suka sama suka.
"Jika suka sama suka, kenapa saya seorang yang kena dakwa. Jika suka sama suka, kena dakwa kedua-dua,"katanya yang berucap dihadapan kira-kira 40 media dan diiringi isterinya,Dato' Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. Turut kelihatan anak-anaknya yang turut memberi sokongan kepadanya.
Jelas Anwar, tumpuannya kini pada Pilihan Raya Permatang Pauh. Katanya, beliau akan memulakan ceramahnya malam ini di Taman Medan, Petaling Jaya.
"Dari Taman Medan kita akan ke Permatang Pauh. Dan insya-Allah dari Permatang Pauh sampai ke Parlimen dan kita ambil alih kerajaan dan perbetulkan segala kekhianatan, penipuan dan rasuah yang ada," katanya.
Anwar ada alibi

Sementara itu, Menurut Peguam Anwar Ibrahim, Sankara Nair Anwar memiliki alibi yang kukuh pada masa kejadian (26 Jun) pada jam 3 petang sebagaimana yang didakwa oleh pembantunya, Saiful.
Sankara yang ditemui di luar kamar sebaik sahaja prosiding tamat jam 10.30 pagi berkata, Mahkamah Sesyen Jalan Duta hari ini dilihat berlaku adil kerana membenarkan anak guamnya diikat jamin setelah Anwar mengaku tidak bersalah terhadap pertuduhan liwat.
Beliau salah seorang daripada sembilan peguam bela Anwar berkata, Hakim S.M Komathy memperlihatkan sifat adil dengan menggunakan budi bicaranya membenarkan Anwar dibebaskan dengan ikat jamin.
Sankara juga berkata, pendakwaan kes liwat terhadap Anwar tidak akan menjejaskan proses pilihan raya kecil Permatang Pauh akhir bulan ini.
Hakim menetapkan 10 September untuk sebutan semula kes itu di mahkamah yang sama.

Berikut adalah Kertas Pertuduhan terhadap Anwar:
Bahawa kamu, pada 26 Jun 2008 antara jam 3.01 petang dan 4.30 petang di alamat Unit 11-5-1, Desa Damansara Condominium, No 99 Jalan Setiakasih, Bukit Damansara, dalam Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur telah dengan sengaja melakukan persetubuhan yang bertentangan dengan aturan tabii dengan Mohd Saiful Bukhari bin Azlan dengan memasukkan zakar kamu ke dalam duburnya; dan oleh yang demikian kamu telah melakukan satu kesalahan yang boleh dihukum di bawah Seksyen 377B Kanun Keseksaan.
Sekiranya disabitkan menurut Seksyen 377B Kanun Keseksaan, kamu hendaklah dihukum dengan penjara selama tempoh yang boleh sampai 20 tahun, dan bolehlah juga dikenakan sebatan.

Anwar diwakili sembilan peguam
Anwar diwakili oleh sepasukan sembilan orang peguam yang diketuai oleh Sulaiman Abdullah. Peguam lain termasuklah Sivarasa Rasiah, Sankara Nair, Saiful Izham Ramli, Amer Hamzah, Edmund Bon, Latheefa Koya, Leela J Jesuthasan dan Mohd Razlan Jawaludin.
Pihak pendakwaan diketuai Peguam Cara Negara Dato' Idrus Harun manakala pihak pembelaan yang dibarisi sembilan peguam diketuai Sulaiman Abdullah.
Ini adalah kali kedua Anwar menghadapi tuduhan liwat. Dalam kes pertama pada 2000, beliau dituduh meliwat Azizan Abu Bakar, pemandu isterinya, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.
Terdapat juga peguam pemerhati bagi pihak Majlis Peguam dan badan hak asasi manusia yang berpejabat di Washington, Paris dan Bangkok.
Sementara itu beberapa orang pimpinan PAS turut mengikuti perbicaraan tersebut seperti Naib Presiden, Dato' Husam Musa; Setiausaha Agung, Dato' Kamaruddin Jaffar; AJK PAS Pusat merangkap ahli Parlimen Kuala Selangor, Dr Dzulkifly Ahmad dan AJK PAS Pusat yang juga ahli parlimen Titiwangsa, Dr Lo' Lo' Mohd Ghazali menyambut baik keputusan mahkamah tersebut.
Husam yang ditemui menyatakan keputusan tersebut menunjukkan mahkamah lebih bebas dan adil.
"Kami bersyukur atas keputusan yang diambil oleh mahkamah tadi. Selepas ini, kita akan turun 'berperang' di parlimen Permatang Pauh bagi memenangkan Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim,"kata Dr Lo' Lo'.
Anwar meninggalkan perkarangan Kompleks Mahkamah pada kira-kira 11.35 pagi.
Laluan ke kompleks itu sesak seketika apabila lebih 2,000 penyokong Anwar berhimpun di luar dan dalam perkarangan kompleks menyebabkan Anwar sukar meninggalkan kawasan itu. - mks

Komen:Hanya Berserah Kepada Allah S.W.T sahaja...itu yang termampu.

Overnite Policy Rate (OPR) BNM Announces Today

BNM is due to announce the key OPR today. Since April 2006, the OPR has been stuck at 3.5%. Akin to a soccer betting pool, let us see what the market predicts on Bloomberg.

a) 3.50% (40% chance)

b) 3.75% (55%)

c) 4.00% (5%)

Meanwhile in the US, the FOMC's (Federal Open Market Committee) decision on the Federal Funds Rate has been at 2.00% since April 2008. The market expects that the Fed rate is maintained during its imminent announcement on 6th August. Nevertheless, the US Fed's chairman Ben Benanke is facing calls from some economists and politicians to raise the rate within 2H/2008, given the week USD, still lofty crude oil prices and overall inflation levels.

"Tough decision for BNM to make"

On wednesday, the Malaysian June CPI announcement of 7.7% inflation growth(the highest since 1986) startled many, the hike being mostly due to fuel and food price hikes. This has put the onus on BNM to seriously ponder on raising the OPR to combat the cost-push inflation. On the other hand, raising rates in general do stifle the economics growth rate. With such a dilemma, it is going to be a really tough and close call. Would BNM governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz be brave and decisive enough to raise the OPR now?

We rate the chance of OPR hike as 40-45% today. Raising the OPR rate would inadvertently affect the BLR%, which in turn would ultimately affect mortgage, automobile, business and other loan rates as well. Do we ready for it?

What Pak Lah Wants To Announce Today?

Guessing what is so special today....18th July 2008. We was being informed since last week that something interesting is to be announced today by our PM...Even our DPM also mentioned something nice few days ago. It will benefit the rest of Malaysian. What it is? We also don't know. We understand that it is something related to the special dividend of RM6B payout by the Petronas this year. Can it be another cash distribution as what had done before (special rebate for motorist recently)? Hopefully this time it is nothing on motorist again. It must be concerned about the increase in cost of living. So how it can benefit everybody? So just wait what PM is going to announce today.Is it every family get RM1k this time?Hahahahaha...Berdoa aje lah ye.

Factors That May Effect Market For Another Six Months

Having consider few factor that may effect the market for another six months is as below:-

a) Continuing increase in oil price

b) USA slides into recession

c) New president for USA - Democrat

d) Increase in global interest rates

e) Increase in commodity prices

f) Local political uncertainty

g) Change of government in Malaysia

h) Budget 2009

i) Poor business and consumer sentiment

j) Credit crunch

Buying and selling signal

THE price movement of a stock is dependent on the demand and supply of the stock, which in turn is influenced by the buyers’ buying interest and the sellers’ selling interest.
Every buyer or seller has different purposes when entering into a trade. The followings are general “rules”, which provide us with some hints on whether the stock price will probably go up or down.
Investors should not view these “rules” as a foolproof method that will hold true all the time. There are certain occasions that market manipulators might be using these “rules” to mislead the general public.

Rule 1: Buyers are showing small orders and sellers are showing big orders. However, the stock prices are holding quite well – buy signal.

When we want to purchase a stock, we will call our remisiers to check on buying or selling orders on the stock. A lot of selling orders with only a few buying orders on the stock may imply that the stock price would come down.
However, if the stock prices are holding quite well, it could mean there are some net buyers accumulating the stock.
The reason for this is buyers may refuse to show their buying orders to attract sellers to sell at the buyers’ buying price.
Showing high buying orders may delay selling interest, as sellers will wait for the buyers to buy at their selling price. Hence, it is a “buy” signal if we notice the above rule on any stock.
On the other hand, if buyers have big orders and sellers have small orders while the stock price continues to drop, it might be a “sell” signal that this stock has some big sellers that are not willing to show their selling orders but they need to sell the stock now.
Showing big selling orders may cause panic on the stock. Hence, to sell at higher prices, sellers will try to hide their selling orders.
Logically, if a stock has a strong buying interest, the stock price should go up instead of come down. Hence, the weakening stock price may imply that sellers outnumber buyers.

Rule 2: The overall market is weak but your stock price is moving against the overall market trend – buy signal.

In a down market, if a stock that you own is inching up steadily despite the overall weak stock market sentiment, this may imply that there are some net buyers on this stock.
We view this as a “buy” signal where buyers are eagerly accumulating the stock in spite of the weak market. In most instances, the stock price will move higher the moment the overall market sentiment recovers.
In contrast, if the overall market is moving up but your stock is being beaten down, it is a “sell” signal. Normally, insiders are aware of certain crucial bad news that is still not available to the market yet.

Rule 3: Stocks carry a lot of bad news and are trading at high volume but stock price remains stable – buy signal.

Sometimes a certain stock is facing huge bad news but the stock price is holding on quite well. Normally, it may imply that buyers are not worried about the market concerns on this stock. The current stock price may have discounted all the bad news.
In contrast, if a stock, despite having all the good news in the media, continues to see its price decline, this is a “sell” signal that shows there are certain sellers who have some concerns over the stock, but the overall market is still not aware of the news.

Impacts On Upliftment Of Ceiling Prices For Cement Industry

kindly go thru this report for a clearer picture on what is an impact on this industry http://www.scribd.com/doc/3280825/Samram-Cement-Industry-Update

One Thing That Is Certain In Life

Understanding the stock market rules by Ooi Kok Hwa

In this article, we will highlight a few common and important ‘rules’ that are crucial to most investors.

Your purchase price is irrelevant when you consider selling a stock.
Most people always find it difficult to sell a stock at a price lower than the purchase price because this means making a loss.For example, if you purchase a stock at 90 sen, you will not sell the stock lower than 90 sen as this means a loss to you.You will most likely hold on to it until you are able to sell it at higher than 90 sen.Unfortunately, your stock never remembers how much you have paid for it. You have memory of the purchase price but not the stock.As a result, some investors end up holding on to lousy stocks with poor fundamentals.The longer you hold on to these stocks, the higher the losses that you will incur.Hence, the timing to sell stocks with poor fundamental will depend very much on when you are able to admit that you have made a mistake purchasing them.

Deciding whether to sell when the price is falling or continue to hold on to it with the hope it will recover and break even depends on the fundamentals of the stock.The target selling price for a stock should be based on the future prospects of the company instead of the price that you paid for the stock.Thus, you need to “sell the losers and let the winners run”.For stocks with good value, you should consider holding them for a longer time.Lately, some second liners with good fundamentals have been hammered down to very low levels. Some of them are even selling at lower than the owner’s cost (lower than book value).However, not many investors are excited about those stocks although they are currently selling at a very cheap valuation.Most investors worry that the price will go down further after they have bought it.It is very hard to predict the market bottom. Based on our observation, certain fundamentally strong stocks may have temporarily found bottom despite the recent market sell down.We think it is a good time to nibble on some good value stocks and keep them for the long term.

Even though the price will get cheaper than your purchase price tomorrow, we believe the current price should not be too far from the bottom.Investors need to remember that the returns are based on the selling price. You may purchase the stock at a relatively higher price during a downtrend.However, if the stock has great potential and you are patient enough to hold on and wait until the market recovers, you can still get higher returns than someone who may be lucky to purchase this stock at the lowest price but sell it too early.As mentioned earlier, buying before the market reaches bottom is “buy low, sell high”.However, to a certain group of investors it is safer to buy only when the market has found the bottom and started to recover rather than trying to predict where the market bottom is.They prefer to buy the stock at a higher price because they believe they can sell it at a higher price. This is “buy high, sell higher”.For those who prefer the “buy low, sell high” strategy, as you are buying before the market is touches bottom, you need to stagger your purchases so that you have enough bullets to average down your purchase price if the stock price drops further.For those who prefer to “buy high, sell higher”, they need to prepare themselves mentally to buy at higher stock prices.This might be a problem to investors as they are not willing to pay for higher stock prices as they always remember the recent lowest prices.They may end up buying nothing but still hoping the stock price will come down one day.

Ooi Kok Hwa is a licensed investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.Thanks for your Sun Tzu's Art of War on Share Market seminar recently.

Test Your Brain Power

There are 7 girls in a bus. Each girl has 7 backpacks. In each backpack, there are 7 big cats. For every big cat there are 7 little cats. Question: How many legs are there in the bus?
Plz answer at the SamRam Chat Box...if you want to know the answer. I'll tell you either correct or wrong.... Correct correct correct....as per Lingam...Hahahaha...Jangan pk untung saham ajer k.

Is There A Possibility For A Snap Election?

The Election Commission (EC) has informed its officers to be prepared for a snap election, said chairman Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman.
Stressing that he was not one to speculate, Abdul Rashid said the EC was prepared “for anything” and was capable of handling a snap election as it had all necessary infrastructure in place.
In an interview with mStar Online yesterday, he revealed that after the post-mortem of the 12th General Election, he had instructed all returning officers (RO) to be prepared for any eventuality.
Similarly, the 140,000 people involved in the general election have also been advised to not refuse when called upon again for duty in the event of a snap election.
“But I don’t want to speculate, and it is not for us to speculate, but we are prepared for anything. In the past two months of meeting with the ROs, I’ve already told them to be prepared as it may be called anytime,” he said.
Abdul Rashid was responding to talk on recent events that have led to speculations of Umno members defecting from the party en masse and even party hopping following Barisan Nasional's dismal showing in the elections.
Various parties have since come forward in favour of an anti-hopping law proposed by Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Mohd Zaid Ibrahim in March.
In the same light, tension has been fuelled in Barisan following the shocking announcement of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s resignation from Umno on Monday.
Political observer Dr Chandra Muzaffar said the possibility of a snap election in the near future could not be dismissed.
“However, I do not consider it as a serious possibility, only that in politics, such possibilities cannot not be rejected outright,” he said.
Universiti Putra Malaysia political communications lecturer Associate Prof Dr Abdul Muati @ Zamri Ahmad said it was possible a snap election could take place if MPs were to cross over.

Some Interesting Story About Water Services Sector

Kindly have a look at this interesting write up, it's about The Who's Who & Happening in this sector.
http://www.scribd.com/search?query=water+update4

Pergi Nya......

Al Fatihah buat Allahyarham Tan Sri Nasimuddin Amin yang mana telah kembali kerahmatullah pada pagi 1hb Mei 2008 di Long Beach Hospital, Los Angelas, California kerana Lung Cancer. Beliau merupakan pengasas empayar Naza Automobile yang terkenal di Malaysia. Pergi nya beliau merupakan kehilangan seorang tokoh perniagaan yang amat disegani dan kisah perjuangan beliau dalam merealisasikan impian amat dikagumi. Pada umur yang masih muda iaitu 53 tahun, beliau amat disayangi oleh penciptaNya. Wang yang banyak tidak memungkinkan penangguhan pemergian beliau jika waktunya sudah sampai. Hanya sedekah jariah, ilmu yang memanafaatkan dan doa ahli keluarga sahaja yang dapat mendampingi beliau selalu.

Laksa Shack........Lolok...

SETELAH lengkap baratul isthihlal inilah hakir panjangkan kisah Tun Lepat bahawasanya hebohlah kebijaksanaan Hang Musa, gerau diraja Istana Melaka mengalahkan gerombolan tentera Siam dengan hanya setalam nasi minyak. Masyhurlah nama Musa al-Kadzim sehingga ramai rakyat Melaka dalam kalangan Orang Laut menganut Islam beramai-ramai. Oleh sukacita tiada terhitung; tidak lama kemudian Parameswara pun memanggil Hang Musa lalu dianugerahkan kepada mamak Tun Lepat itu sepersalinan pakaian baharu daripada kain kapas bermutu. Hang Musa juga dihadiahkan sebuah rumah yang lebih sempurna, pelupusan cukai kereta lembu, bekalan air bersih percuma sepuluh tempayan pertama dan pendidikan tanpa bayaran untuk Tun Lepat. Adapun untuk Bomoh Badin yang gagal ia mengusir tentera Siam dengan sihir hantunya; Parameswara telah memberi banji itu hadiah sebatang penyapu lidi.
“Apa gerangan diberi hadiah penyapu kepada kita, ibaratnya kita ini kijo tiada harga diri dan orang tiada adat budaya.” Maka sakitlah hati Bomoh Badin terhadap Parameswara tetapi paling sakit hati ia kepada Hang Musa, daripada sakit menjadi benci, daripada benci menjadi dendam, daripada dendam menjadi ia bertambah buruk kerana masuklah hasutan-hasutan liar dalam kepalanya setelah dicadangkan iblis setan. Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib sendiri amatlah murka dan dukacita kerana suaminya Parameswara telah memeluk Islam tanpa pengetahuan baginda. Mana tidaknya, Parameswara sudah begitu berubah. Sehari-hari hanya ia belajar tajwid dan mengaji, sepanjang petang tiada lagi ia mahu main tom tom bak seperti biasanya, tiada juga ia mahu melayan badut diraja berbuat lucu di balairong seri. Kalau tidak, amatlah biasa Parameswara dan Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib itu berhibur hati dengan jenaka bodoh Raja Lawak. “Kanda Param marilah main tepuk amai-amai dengan dinda.” Parameswara mengelak sahaja, “Cett, beta mahu bekerja keras untuk membangunkan Melaka. Ini supaya pengagihan kekayaan dapat berlaku dengan saksama.” Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib menghentak-hentak kaki pada lantai istana. Baginda ingin memberontak geram. Mujur ada Mak Inang Zainab atau Dang Jenab menggetap bibir seraya merenung tajam baginda Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib. Baharulah elok sedikit kelakuannya. Mak Inang Zainab itu pengasuh Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib sejak kecil. Maka baginda permaisuri pun memanggillah anak menantunya Raden Jaya yang duduk menginap di Iskandar untuk menguruskan perihal Parameswara yang kini mahu ia menjadi mukmin abadi dan tiada lagi mahu menjadi munafik sejati. Adapun pertemuan itu amatlah tertutup. “Ampun tuanku bonda beribu ampun, apa gerangan tuanku bonda memanggil sahaya masuk menghadap di Melaka ini? Apakah ada banjir? Apakah ada taufan?” Adalah menantu Parameswara itu sebelum ini tiada ia mencampuri urusan negeri tetapi oleh permintaan bonda tirinya maka tiada nampak arah melainkan ia harus ikut terlibat jua. “Kanda Param sudah main kotor nampaknya. Ini semua gara-gara Hang Musa si tukang masak itulah. Kalau kanda Param diajak beta bergurau senda, ia hanya menjawab cettt beta mahu mencari damai abadi.” Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib bemurung sahaja. Raden Jaya tiba-tiba naik baran. “Cis, sahaya hendak benar mencabar Hang Musa itu berdebat. Memang dasar ia itu beruk.” Tatkala berang Raden Jaya naik mencanak, ia pun bangun lantas menghunus keris kontotnya sambil menjulang keris itu ke udara dan bertempik, “Pantang sahaya dipermainkan tukang masak.” Adapun Raden Jaya itu isterinya ialah Puteri Cahaya Tembam Balam, yakni anakanda Parameswara hasil perkahwinan dengan seorang puteri kayangan. Nama manja Raden Jaya itu RaJim yakni huruf `ra' dan `jim'. Sementara Puteri Cahaya Tembam Balam itu hanya dipanggil sebagai Tengku Tembam atau Ku Bam. Nantilah hakir memerikan lagi darihal RaJim dan Ku Bam ini bila tiba masanya. Murnilah, maka damai abadilah kalau hakir menyerah ceritera ini kepada Tun Lepat sebagai empunya hikayat. Untuk lebih mudah memperkenalkan Islam, adapun mamak kita Musa Kadzim yang dipanggil orang Hang Musa pun menyusun ia rencana bijak supaya dapat mendampingi Parameswara dengan lebih baik. Adalah mamak mencadangkan supaya baginda Parameswara meminang anak perempuan raja Pasai yang sudah lama beragama Islam. Cantiknya nian, nama pun begitu damai abadi bila menyebutnya iaitu Puteri Paduka Rupawan Lo'Lo Ganish atau nama manjanya Cik Lo'. Adalah Cik Lo' ini bapanya Sultan Pasai ibunya pula puteri dari Kemboja. Sungguh rupawan Cik Lo'. Sesiapa melihatnya tentu merasa diri pungguk merayu merana penuh kerinduan. Kalau Cik' Lo turun dari singgahsana serasa bulan bersembunyi di balik banjaran Titiwangsa, tersangkut cahayanya di awan lantas turun cahaya itu di balik rimbunan pohon jitung. Cahaya itu kadang kaku di ranting, kadang ia melekat di celah awan terlepas melayah-layah turun ke pelosok kota hingga di pucuk-pucuk pohon termasuk bumbung rumah rakyat jelata. Mata kiri Cik Lo' itu bintang kartika, mata kanannya bintang belantik, wajahnya bintang peradah, bibirnya cahaya rimba raya tidak bertepi. Kalau dapat menatap wajah Cik Lo' umpama dapat melihat langit langsung kekal di depan mata. Bulu-bulu kecil pada tubuh Cik Lo' itu umpama kunang-kunang menyala seraya membisik `Allahuakbar'. Andai Cik Lo' itu bangun untuk tahajud fajar yang mahu menyingsing pun berpatah balik kerna segan lantas menjadi malam hitam. Andai ditanya apakah rahsia kecantikannya, Cik Lo' akan merendah diri tidak menjawab soalan, “Argh sesungguhnya Dia. Dia lebih karib daripada urat lehermu. Kerana kasih-Nya kepada kamu, Dia menciptakan semesta sekalian alam.” Maha Suci Tuhan. Adapun kepandaian Cik Lo' itu juga adalah memasak bermacam-macam lauk pauk dan makanan. Kata orang di Pasai, kalau dimakan sedikit lauk karya Cik Lo' itu pasti sang pemakan teruja sampai menari sambil menyanyi, `Can malican, can malican, can malican ketipung payung, di mana dia anak bulan saya, anak bulan saya ada di Titiwangsa.' Tatkala Parameswara pertama kali melihat Cik Lo' terus ia berpantun: Assalamualaikumlah salam, Sirih lipat pinang di dalam; Apa khabar bunga di kolam, Ada sekuntum kembang malam. Maka disahutlah pula oleh Cik Lo' penuh sopan walaupun hatinya sedikit cemas melihat tubuh Parameswara yang gemuk dan kulitnya yang gelap itu: Asuklah hitam bergigi emas, Ekor dia lilit ke sawa; Tubuhnya hitam kupeluk kemas, Rasa memeluk intan gemala. Sukacitalah hati Parameswara kerana isteri baharunya pandai mengambil hati. Paling pandai Cik Lo' itu memasak laksa Champa kerana bondanya dari sebelah Kemboja. Apatah pula di Melaka banyak sekali ikan segar. Setelah beberapa pekan bernikah dengan Parameswara, Cik Lo' pun turun mencemar duli ke dapur untuk sama-sama memasak laksa dengan mamak Musa. “Ketahuilah ayahanda Musa, orang Melayu itu jangan dipisahkan daripada ikan. Kalau orang Melayu berhenti makan ikan maka jadi bengaplah ia. Kerana itulah kuah laksa ini mesti menggunakan ikan. Adalah wanita yang sedang hamil itu kalau ia memakan ikan selalu-selalu akan ia mendapat anak dengan kemampuan bahasa dan bercakap yang lebih baik sebelum usianya lapan belas bulan. Adapun ikan itu memiliki kandungan asam lemak yang dapat ia menolong menyihatkan darah. Ikan itu juga elok manfaatnya untuk orang yang mengalami kesulitan percernaan.” Waktu itulah kita menunjukkan sedikit minat dalam hal masak-memasak ini lantas kita pun membuka mulut bertanya, “Tuanku Cik Lo' apa petuanya memilih ikan yang elok?” Cik Lo' tersenyum manis-manis lemak seperti kerepek pisang manis rasanya. “Adapun saat memilih ikan yang segar, carilah yang tubuhnya masih kenyal bila ditekan, sisiknya pula tidak mudah lepas, dan tiada ia berbau hamis. Pastikan mata ikan itu pun masih bening dan bukannya pucat atau cekung.” Maka kami bertiga pun menyediakan bahan laksa Champa. Adalah telur rebus yang tiada direbus terlalu keras, ada sedikit kubis, tauge dan cili padi. Untuk kuahnya itulah diambil enam ekor ikan kembung siap direbus. Ada juga santan kerana memang Melayu itu amat gemar lemak-lemak sedap. Adapula rempah ratus yakni lima penyuluh hidup iaitu pertama ketumbar biji, kedua lada hitam, ketiga serbuk kunyit, keempat limau purut, dan kelima adalah asam gelugur. Ia dinamai lima penyuluh hidup bersempena ahlul bait berlima iaitu Rasulullah, Saidatina Fatimah, Saidina Ali dan cucu baginda Nabi iaitu Hasan dan Husin. Itu disempurnakan pula dengan serai lalu dilengkapkan rasanya dengan garam dan gula. Terkecur liur kita membayangkannya. Kerana itulah barang siapa ia memakan laksa terkenang ia akan keluarga Nabi Muhammad. Kalau tiada terkenang jua maka dasar ia takbur dan angkuh terhadap keluarga Nabi. Dan kalau angkuh terhadap keluarga Nabi tiada lain tiada bukan terkutuklah ia sebagai muslim. Aduh tuan-tuan sedap sungguh laksa Cik Lo' itu. Maha suci Tuhan yang telah membersihkan ahlul bait sesuci-sucinya. Oleh suci itu barangsiapa sudah makan tengah hari pasti mengidam laksa waktu makan malam. Tiadalah susah amat menyiapkan kuahnya laksa cuma air tangan Cik Lo' itu memang lazat. Katanya jika ingin lagi lazat masukkan juga sayuran hiris mentah contohnya kacang panjang, daun kesum dan bunga kantan. Maka ikan itu diasingkan isi dan tulangnya, lalu ditumbuk-tumbuk mesra. Kemudian disatukan bahan kuah kecuali ikan di dalam periuk, dibiarkan ia mendidih agak manja. Sementara menunggu itu Cik Lo' mengajak kami berdua membaca asmaul husna supaya masuk rasa kasih sayang malikulmanan dalam makanan. Cukup sembilan puluh sembilan nama Allah disebut, maka baru dituang ikan ke dalam kuah lalu digaul sebati. Langsung dibiar ia mendidih dan kuahnya menjadi pekat. Sementara menanti mendidih dan siap kuah itu kami bertiga berselawat seratus kali. Laksa itu dihidang sekali dengan mi. Hidangan laksa itu pun diarak masuk ke kamar santap utama dengan sekian lembuara, dibunyikan nafiri, diiring dayang berpakaian pasparagam dan di belakangnya berjalan lenggang melenggang Cik Lo' sambil ia tersenyum serong-serong bahasa kepada Parameswara. Waktu itu Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib yang sudah duduk di atas bantal untuk santap, gesit naik darah kerana memikirkan Cik Lo' tersenyum kepada suaminya. Baginda Parameswara dan Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib pun sedia mengambil tempat. Permaisuri hanya menahan hati, tiada mahu ia menunjuk fiil di hadapan orang. Untuk menewaskan Cik Lo' harus ada rencana lebih beradab. Cik Lo' pun mengisi bahan laksa dan menyenduk kuah untuk Parameswara. Senyum sahaja baginda raja. Cik Lo' mengangkat sembah sambil mengenyit mata dan tersenyum lagi. Teganglah suasana antara dua perempuan Parameswara. Sebelum Cik Lo' menyenduk kuah laksa untuk Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib, Puteri Paduka Rupawan Lo'Lo' Ganish pun menghulur tangan untuk bersalam, tanda berdamai abadi. Segera permaisuri mengalih muka sambil menepis tangan Cik Lo' kerana tiada ia mahu berdamai abadi. Akan tetapi Cik Lo' tiada ia mengalah melainkan tetap juga menghulur tangannya. Lagi sekali ditepis Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib sampai bertepis-tepis di hadapan baginda Parameswara. Baginda Parameswara tiada nampak kerana asyik menyudu kuah laksa. Kalau tidak kerana Mak Inang Zainab atau Dang Jenab menjegil mata kepada permaisuri tentu sahaja tepis-menepis tangan itu berterusan sehingga petang, membawa ke malam, langsung ke siang esoknya. Akhirnya baru ia berjabat tangan hendak tidak hendak. Baharu itulah Cik Lo' menyenduk kuah dan laksa untuk Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib seraya tersenyum-senyum perli. Adapun setelah Parameswara santap laksa itu baginda pun menggigil kerana kesedapan, langsung baginda mendapat hidayah, langsung baginda ingin bertaubat. Titah Parameswara, “Sungguh damai abadi memakan laksa ini. Beta memohon ampun daripada Allah yang tidak ada tuhan selain Dia. Yang Maha Hidup, Maha Mandiri, Maha Pengasih, Maha Penyayang, dan yang memiliki kebesaran dan kemuliaan. Dan beta memohon pada-Nya agar menerima taubat beta sebagai taubat hamba manusia yang hina. Yang selalu tunduk, fakir, papa, miskin dan yang mengharapkan pahala, yang tidak dapat memberikan manfaat dan keburukan bagi dirinya, kehidupan ataupun kematian. Ya Allah beta memohon perlindungan-Mu daripada jiwa yang tidak pernah kenyang, dan daripada hati yang tidak pernah khusyuk dan ilmu yang tiada manfaat, dan daripada solat yang tidak terkabul, dan daripada doa yang tidak didengar. Ya Allah beta memohon kepada-Mu kemudahan setelah kesulitan, dan jalan keluar setelah kesedihan dan ketenangan setelah kesulitan. Ya Allah tidak ada pada beta ini kurnia kecuali-Mu, tidak ada Tuhan selain Engkau, beta memohon ampunan dan taubat kepada-Mu.” Berlinanganlah air mata Cik Lo', juga mamak kita. Ramailah pembesar menangis melihat kebesaran Allah oleh Parameswara itu bertaubat setelah kesedapan laksa. Ramailah yang bangkit dari duduk seraya bertakbir tiga kali dipimpin oleh Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar. Titah Parameswara lagi, “Moleklah laksa Champa ini diperkenalkan kepada rakyat jelata sementalahan kuahnya diperbuat daripada ikan. Beta harap dengan banyaknya penggunaan ikan maka permintaan terhadap ikan akan bertambah, dan dibeli dengan harga yang munasabah; sekali gus dapat meningkatkan taraf hidup Orang Laut di Melaka ini.” Sungguh bijaksana ilmu iktisad Parameswara. Terjegil biji mata Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib, serasa ingin bingkas bertempik seraya melondehkan kain kemban batiknya. Sungguh terhina rasanya. Geram hati Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib tiada ingat. Malam itu segeralah dipanggil RaJim masuk menghadap. “Anakanda, tiada lagi dapat bonda bendung rasa hati ini.” “Sahaya tahu bonda. Inilah sahaya mencadangkan tiga perkara. Pertama, eloklah dibunuh Hang Musa itu dengan bantuan Bomoh Badin tetapi jangan dilakukan serta-merta melainkan pada saat semua orang leka jua. Kedua, eloklah bonda juga belajar memasak demi menyaingi kebolehan Cik Lo' Ganish itu. Belajar memasak yang senang-senang sahaja dahulu, sahaya akan ajukan teman sahaya yang juga seorang gerau, bernama ia Hang Mail Rebung. Dan ketiganya, demi menarik minat ayahanda tuanku yang sudah mulai minat kepada Islam eloklah bonda merancang untuk membina sebuah masjid daripada kaca yang dinamai Masjid Kaca Ajaib di Pulau Upih.” Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib berasa aneh, “Tetapi untuk apa dibina masjid di Pulau Upih kerana tiada orang tinggal di sana, lagipun bukankah payah jusoh berkayuh dan berdayung ke pulau itu untuk sembahyang sahaja?” RaJim menepuk dahi, “Issyy bonda ini, adalah Masjid Kaca Ajaib itu bukan untuk ibadah melainkan untuk ditengok ditenung sahaja. Kalau ada saudagar asing singgah di Melaka untuk berdagang mereka boleh melawat-lawat dan melihat-lihat keindahannya. Maka Melaka akan mendapat pendapatan hasil lawatan untuk bersiar itu.” Tersenyum Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib, “Pintar menantu tiri beta.” “Nanti kita juga naikkan sepanduk sekitar kota Melaka, sepanduk yang kononnya dari penduduk Melaka yang membantah titah tuanku ayahanda bahawa laksa Champa itu tidak sedap. Kalau kita dapat cari orang membantah dalam tiga ribu orang pun molek juga.” Tambah terpesona Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib. Terujalah ia kerana ia mendapat sokongan. Tiada baginda menyangka, bukan semua sokongan itu menguatkan bahkan ada sokongan membawa rebah. Sementara tiba pekan hadapan, kecaplah sedikit laksa ini. Moga-moga tuan juga terkenang ahlul bait setelah itu, moga-moga tuan juga terus bertaubat sesudah itu.

Nasi Minyak Tg Bidara Lawan Tomyam Kung

ARAKIAN cukuplah beberapa purnama Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib dirawat di Rembau. Yang dapat menyembuhkan ia itu adalah Bomoh Badin yang begitu kuat main jin dan mambang. Kalaulah tidak kerana permainan sihir Bomoh Badin yang menghantar ribuan hantu dan jin untuk masuk ke dalam tubuh baginda permaisuri maka belum tentu dapat ia sembuh. Menurut ceritera orang Rembau, hampir lima ribu jin dipaksa masuk ke dalam tubuh Kamarul Ajaib yang dibaring telanjang; barulah baginda permaisuri itu sembuh. Dalam masa yang sama; yang empunya hikayat adalah Tun Lepat, ia menyatakan kepada hakir bahawa tentera Siam pun mara ke perbatasan negeri Melaka. Adalah yang menyampaikan kisah mengatakan tentera Siam itu mara ia memakai baju merah, baju hitam dan baju hijau menabrak masuk, langsung melumpuhkan segala bala tentera negeri kecil dan kampung. Oleh kerana penggawa dan penguasa di negeri-negeri itu heboh ia bertelagah merebut kuasa maka tumbanglah sekian negeri dari Kedah sampailah ke hujung banjaran Titiwangsa.
Tersentaklah Parameswara daripada lena, santap pun tiada lalu, maka baginda pun bergegaslah memanggil sekian pegawai termasuk bendahara supaya dapat masuk menghadap. Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar mengangkat sembah, menggeletar juga. "Ampun tuanku, sudah beta maklumkan kepada tuanku. Adalah Siam itu akan menyerang negeri kita yang masih belum begitu kuat ini tuanku. Ramai sungguh gananya. Ada ia berkumpul di Jerlun. Malah ada ia di mana-mana. Gandik Siam, Sri Maha Che Det mencungkil segala sejarah silam tuanku di Temasik. Ia mengatakan tuanku telah membunuh penggawa Temasek, ia juga mengatakan tuanku membunuh Dang Ranum..." Parameswara menghentak kaki langsung berdecit sedikit, "Cettt, beta sudah tahu sejarah sendiri. Apa mahunya gandik Siam ini?" Bendahara menghela nafas, serasa berat. "Menurut wakil Siam, tuanku tiada kuasa memerintah Melaka kerana negeri ini di bawah naungan Siam ketika tuanku datang mengambil sokongan Orang Laut." Parameswara terjungkit sedikit berasa murka. Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar yang sudah tua itu tunduk tidak berani mengangkat muka. "Apa lagi?" Tanya Parameswara menengking keras. Tersembur air liur muhtasyam baginda ke muka bendahara. Perlahan-lahan Dato Bendahara mengeluarkan sapu tangan mengelap mukanya yang agak basah. Dato Bendahara bersuara perlahan, khuatir jika disangka berbalik adab. "Adalah Siam menekan tuanku supaya turun takhta. Katanya tuanku tiada layak menjadi pemerintah Melaka." Berubah air muka Parameswara, "Mana ada tekanan. Siapa menekan beta? Kenapa beta harus turun takhta? Cettt, ini sudah lebih!" Parameswara bingkas dengan wajah terlalu murka dan meludah sirih dalam mulutnya. Dato Bendahara mengangkat sembah gamak-gamak. "Ampun tuanku, adalah Siam ini amatlah kuat. Tiada kuasa kita menentangnya." "Tapi beta tidak akan turun takhta. Beta degil Dato Bendahara. Beta jenis degil, apakah Dato tiada reti-reti?" Parameswara naik hangat dalam dada. Terasa lapar mahu makan pun ada. Baginda memintal-mintal misainya. "Patik amatlah tahu tuanku tiada mahu turun takhta. Patik menyembah rafak taat. Adalah kami segala pegawai istana ini bersama tuanku ketika susah, ketika senang jua tuanku." Begitu setia Dato Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar. Tiba-tiba masuklah baginda Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib bersama Bomoh Badin. Masuk ia itu berlari-lari anak, umpamanya larian kecil Saadiah dalam filem-filem lama Jalan Ampas. "Kanda..." "Ooo dinda paduka liku beta." Maka di hadapan singgahsana, berdakap-dakaplah suami isteri itu kerana telah berpurnama tiada berjumpa. Bersedih-sedih dan berjujuh air mata ria. Tiadalah dapat digambarkan pertemuan dua kekasih yang sudah lama berangti. Seketika itu juga Parameswara menyanyi gita dalam bahasa yang kurang dimengerti. Gita disahut pula Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib dan mereka menyanyi berselang-seli. Tatkala itu jugalah penari-penari keluar menari dengan baju yang tampak biru-biru lebam. Tarian tersebut kadangkala mereka mengangkat kaki serentak, kadang mengepakkan tangan bersama-sama. Sesekali mereka melaga punggung dan menunjuk jari telunjuk ke bumbung istana. Paling selalu rentaknya ialah menggelek kepala. Terdiam melongo seisi balai penghadapan melihat fiil itu tetapi tiada siapa berani menegur. Bahkan Dato Temenggung sendiri tergoyang-goyang badan ikut menari kecil. Tiada berapa lama kemudian setelah semuanya reda, berkatalah Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib, "Kanda, adalah kita sudah sembuh, kita ini berjanji tiada lagi minum beram tapai." Parameswara mengesat air mata yang sedikit lagi akan menitis daripada pelupuk mata permaisurinya. Parameswara mengangguk-angguk mengiyakan. "Sudahlah dinda, beta memerlukan dinda di sisi. Ini bala dari Siam sudah pun tiba." Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib, menoleh kepada balian kesayangannya. "Kanda, inilah bomoh yang tersohor. Namanya Bomoh Badin. Ia dapat membangkitkan hantu dari kuburan. Kalau kanda Param bersetuju, biarlah Bomoh Badin ini menjadi Dato Penyuruh Jaya buat kanda." Parameswara memandang Bomoh Badin. Menurut yang empunya cerita Bomoh Badin adalah tukang sihir yang terkenal sejak zaman Sriwijaya lagi. Hebatnya ia dikatakan pernah menunggang keladai di atas gelung Zuhal. Sudah tersohor jasanya dalam membangkitkan sekian hantu, dapat ia juga memanjangkan umur manusia, paling kurang ada lapan ribu manusia di zamannya dipanjangkan usia. Ia juga dapat menghentikan waktu. Semuanya sihir belaka. Gurunya Bomoh Badin ini adalah Haman dari zaman Firaun. Khidmat dukun aneh ini diguna oleh semua penggawa negeri kalau mahu menentukan atau meluaskan sempadan negeri. Rupa paras Bomoh Badin agak menggerunkan. Ia itu seperti berpijak di mayat kalau berpijak, seperti berkelubung kulit manusia dan berlumuran abu seraya ia memegang kilat bercahaya di tangan kanan. Dan cokmar sihir berkepala tengkorak yang batil penuh darah di tangan kiri. Gigi taringnya agak menganjur ke depan. Matanya menyala bengis penuh dendam, rambutnya perang berdiri tegak tetapi kulit mukanya tegang-tegang toyo kerana taksub memakan tempe. Kegemaran Bomoh Badin ini ialah memuja bau daging terbakar sambil mengasapkan stele terpahat tulisan yang tiada dimengerti. Parameswara yang sudah Muslim itu pun naik seram kerana wajah Bomoh Badin seakan-akan sami Aksobhya pengikut Bhairawa dari Barus. Tampaknya Bomoh Badin seolah-olah muncul dari sebuah negeri yang bising kerana bunyi hering. Naik bulu roma Parameswara naik panjang. Sekarang izinkan hakir menyerah kisah ini kepada Tun Lepat supaya dapat ia berbanyak beka: Kita memang ada dalam balai penghadapan ketika Bomoh Badin naik ke istana. Sungguh kita juga berasa gerun. Kita berdoa sesungguh hati kerana takut. Baginda Parameswara pun bertitah ingin menyiasat perihal Bomoh Badin. "Bagaimana kamu dapat membangkitkan hantu dari pusara untuk menentang tentera Siam?" Serak garau suara Bomoh Badin menggegar tiang istana, "Tuanku, patik ini orang yang biasa menyatu diri dengan Heruka." Bapa saudara kita, mamak Musa geleng kepala kerana semua ini hanyalah satu kepercayaan tahyul dan menyalahi akidah Islam. "Patik cuma berteduh di bawah sehelai daun kering. Untuk menyatu diri patik membiar darah busuk manusia tumpah ke kepala, meleleh ke dada sampai lalat hijau menghurungi muka tetapi tiada patik membiarkan hati ini menjadi sesat sebaliknya memujuk Heruka memasuki diri." Bomoh Badin menyembah cadangan. Sebetulnya Parameswara sendiri begitu seram oleh dukun yang kuat main mambang ini tetapi baginda tiada lagi tahu apa harus dilakukan kerana keputusan ilham. "Mungkin boleh cuba." Balas Parameswara antara yakin dengan ragu. "Tuanku boleh tuanku. Parameswara boleh." Sampuk Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib. Parameswara pun gesit mendapat sokongan setia lain. Bangkit baginda, serasa punggungnya yang besar itu ringan dan segera ia mencapai keris panjang, dikeluarkan dari sarungnya dan dihunus ke udara sambil berherik. Tidak lama kemudian ia mengucup keris sampai tertonyoh ke mukanya. Tatkala itu bangun seisi istana bangun sambil bertepuk tangan dan melaung-laungkan, "Hidup Melayu! Hidup Melayu! Hancur musuh Melaka!" Bergegar seisi negeri oleh laungan-laungan keras. Cuma kita berdua sahaja melekat punggung di atas bantal. "Astaghfirullah." Seru Mamak Musa menggumam. Kita berpaling kepada mamak dan mendengar mamak bersuara hampir berbisik kepada kita. "Duhai anakanda, ini adalah kemungkaran yang harus kita banteras bersama. Jangan menyembah cahaya seperti embun dan matahari, apatah lagi bulan dan bintang. Seperti rupa budak, jangan bermakam di ubun-ubun, atau di antara kening, atau di puncak hidung, atau di dalam jantung." Maka untuk dipendekkan kisah, Bomoh Badin pun menyediakan hantu untuk melawan tentera Siam di perbatasan. Tetapi tiada dapat menentang hantu itu akan tentera Siam. Mantera Bomoh Badin tiada menjadi, adalah hantu bertukar arah; berpaling semua menjadi tentera Siam. Kita tahu pada malam Jumaat sebelum pertempuran tentera Melaka dengan tentera Siam itu adalah mamak Musa kita bermunajat kepada Tuhan sampai air mata menitik-nitik. Tatkala Dato Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar masuk menghadap menyampaikan khabar berita kekalahan askar Melaka berserta hantu Bomoh Badin, murkalah Parameswara. "Ampun tuanku beribu ampun. Sembah patik harap diampun. Sudah patik katakan jangan digunakan hantu tetapi tuanku tiada mahu mendengar kebijaksanaan patik. Kalau Majapahit mendapat tahu, malu juga kita tuanku. Dikatakan orang yang kita ini tiada maruah kerana berlawan tidak seimbang." Bendahara mengambil peluang menyelar. Parameswara moyok mukanya. "Adapun tentera Siam amat hewang." Dato Bendahara bersuara lesu. Parameswara ingin memanggil Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib dan Bomoh Badin masuk menghadap. Adapun tatkala itulah mamak kita, gerau diraja memberanikan diri segera menyanggah apa dalam fikiran Parameswara. "Ampun tuanku. Kalau patik dapat menghantar pulang tentera Siam ke negerinya dan meminta tangguh membayar ufti selama beberapa tahun apakah tuanku mahu mencuba pula jalan patik ini?" Mamak Musa berbicara pantas. Parameswara angguk sedikit tanda mahu mendengar lanjut. "Bagaimana?" Dato Temenggung yang turut ada kehairanan. Mamak Musa menjawab, "Itu urusan patik. Tetapi tiada ia melibatkan hantu, Insya-Allah." "Kalau boleh tuan buat begitu, maka dalam tempoh senggang itu molek kiranya tuanku kita semua belayar ke negeri China memohon perlindungan daripada serangan Siam." Dato Bendahara Tun Perpatih Permuka Berjajar amat tertarik. Parameswara yang sudah lelah hanya mengangkat tangan tanda mengizinkan. Baginda sudah kehilangan daya memikir. Maka kita dan mamak pun masuk ke dalam dapur. Kita melihat mamak membasuh beras dan menyejatnya hingga kering. Kemudian dipanaskan pula minyak sapi di dalam kuali langsung ditumis bawang besar sehingga kuning. Ia diketepikan. Mamak menggoreng pula badam sehingga kuning. Ia diketepikan. Setelah itu mamak kita memasukkan kayu manis, buah pelaga empat biji, enam kuntum bunga cengkih ke dalam kuali lalu ditumis. Mamak Musa memasukkan pula beras dan menggaul sampai sebati. Akhir sekali dimasukkan air rebusan dan garam lalu dibiar ia sampai mendidih. Kita lihat mamak mengecilkan api sebelum memasukkan bawang yang ditumis tadi. "Apa ini mamak?" "Nasi minyak." Jawab Mamak Musa ringkas. Hidangan khas istana Melaka tersebut diarak dengan penuh gah, empat belas ekor gajah, dua belas ekor singa dan lima ekor harimau bintang mengiring. Mamak Musa berada paling hadapan menunggang kuda. Nasi minyak pun dipersembahkan kepada Ketua Panglima Tentera Siam. "Apa helah Melaka kali ini?" Panglima Tentera Siam malas-malas menemui mamak Musa. "Panglima, inilah nasi minyak. Sedap dimakan dengan daging berempah." Mamak kita bersuara yakin. Mulutnya terkumat-kamit membaca doa. Panglima Tentera Siam berkerut, "Nasi minyak?" "Benar. Adapun Melaka ini negeri kaya sampaikan minyak pun kami masak bersama nasi. Minyak amat murah di negeri kami. Jadi, kami tentu dapat membayar ufti kepada Maharaja Siam." Panglima Tentera Siam terasa aneh tetapi mahu terus mendengar. "Kalau kami dibenarkan menghimpun sekian minyak, akan kami tukarkan ia menjadi emas dan perak lalu digubah menjadi bunga dan dihantar sebagai ufti kepada Maharaja Siam. Tetapi tuan mesti memberi kami tempoh masa dalam empat ke lima tahun untuk membuktikan kemampuan kami. Tuan mesti mencuba dulu." "Minyak apa lagi yang murah di Melaka itu? Kaya sungguh kalian sampai minyak pun digaul dengan nasi?" Mamak Musa mengemaskan sila di hadapan Panglima Tentera Siam, "Minyak lain yang murah harganya ialah minyak gamat, minyak pala, minyak urut, minyak lintah dan minyak kepala." "Minyak sawit?" "Minyak sawit selalu tiada." Panglima Tentera Siam pun mendapat isyarat jelas negeri Melaka. Maka fahamlah bala Siam yang Melaka mahu tunduk menyerah. Maka surat perjanjian pun ditandatangani yang Melaka berjanji akan menggunakan minyak untuk mengumpul kekayaan sebelum menjadikannya emas yang digubah sebagai ufti. Pulanglah tentera Siam berpaling ke utara tiada sedar mereka terpedaya. Suka citalah Parameswara tatkala dikhabarkan kejayaan mamak Musa membuatkan tentera Siam melakukan gencatan senjata. "Apakah rahsia kehebatan nasi minyak kamu ini Hang Musa sampai dapat melengahkan tentera Siam?" Soal Parameswara. "Tiada lain tiada bukan, solawat dan tawasul juga tuanku." Parameswara kehairanan. "Ampun tuanku beribu ampun, adapun jin tiada dapat menolong kita. Malah khurafat sahaja. Eloklah tuanku mendalami ilmu Islam kerana ternyata kepercayaan tahyul merosakkan kita. Islam suku-suku ini tiada benar tuanku. Yang dapat menolong kita hanya Allah, selain syafaat Rasulullah dan ahlul bait." Mamak Musa memberanikan diri bersuara. Terdiamlah Parameswara memikir. Masuk meresap dalam kepala. Begitulah kisahnya, akan tetapi tiadalah kita dan mamak ketahui kejayaan nasi minyak menghalang kemaraan Siam tiada disenangi oleh Permaisuri Kamarul Ajaib dan Bomoh Badin. Adapun mereka berdua merancang pembunuhan bapa saudara kita itu.